NASCAR Betting Guide: Ambetter Health 400

Trying to parse takeaways from the NASCAR Cup Series' finishing order at Daytona is a fool's errand.

Sure, we should laud Hendrick Motorsports for sweeping the top two spots with William Byron and Alex Bowman. They earned their flowers there.

But a whole lot happened between the green flag and the checkered, and some of it should influence how we view this week. Just not necessarily the order in which these guys finished.

Luckily, with the finish masking some of the key takeaways, we can squeeze out some value this week in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Atlanta. It's possible Chevrolet goes back-to-back, but the other manufacturers actually impressed me more across the entire weekend, and they're the ones showing value in my model right now.

Let's dig into those initial bets I like, and then we can circle back later in the week should any more value arise.

Ford to Win the Race (+180)

When I look at where my model differs from the market, there are a healthy number of drivers my sims like more than the implied odds at FanDuel.

Nearly all of them drive Fords. So, why not bundle them all together here?

The Fords showed good speed in Daytona. Not only did they sweep the front row in qualifying, but they managed to lead 98 of 200 laps. Their redesigned bodies didn't seem to dampen their past superspeedway dominance.

That speed should matter more this week at a track that -- while also designed like a superspeedway -- has featured slightly lower crash rates and, thus, more predictable finishing orders. If they can carry the quality showing from last week into Atlanta, Ford will be in a good spot.

The two favorites by my model -- Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney -- both drive Fords, and I'm showing a smidge of value on Logano alone at +1200. But when you combine them with their stablemates, I have Ford in victory lane 40.9% of the time. Their implied odds at +180 are 35.7%. That's a big enough gap to make this my favorite bet of the week right now.

Bubba Wallace to Win (+2000)

Of all the drivers my model views as undervalued in the outright market, only one doesn't drive a Ford.

That's Bubba Wallace in a Toyota. By taking Wallace individually, I can have exposure to all drivers who I've got as undervalued, so let's add Bubba to the card, as well.

The intriguing thing here is that Wallace is actually the second biggest value of anybody. My sims have him winning 5.8% of the time, up from 4.8% implied. And, frankly, I side with the sims here.

Wallace's two wins for 23XI Racing have come on a superspeedway and a 1.5-mile track. Atlanta is a blend of both, skewing more toward the superspeedway side of the scales. That's a boon for Wallace, who has notched 6 of 17 career top-5s on drafting tracks.

One of those came last week when Wallace finished fifth. He hasn't gotten that superspeedway acumen to translate to Atlanta yet, but a lot of that has been due to poor luck. It's just a four-race sample on a volatile track, so we shouldn't overreact to course history just yet.

Toyotas won both Duel races in Daytona, and they certainly weren't terrible during the race. I think there's enough here to justify taking the leap with Wallace to get the victory.

Ryan Blaney Over Kyle Larson (-112)

I want to caveat by saying this violates one of the core tenants of superspeedway betting. Rarely will a matchup show value at shorter than even money because of how unpredictable finishing orders are.

But Blaney kicks Kyle Larson's rump on pack tracks, and the NASCAR fan in me simply can't pass this up.

The Cup Series has now run 13 races on pack tracks during the Next-Gen era. In those 13, Blaney has finished ahead of Larson 10 times. That's a rate of 76.9%. The implied odds here are 52.8%.

Granted, that number could be unsustainable, and it likely is. My model gives Blaney about a 57% projected win rate this weekend. But that's still well above the implied mark.

Simply put, Blaney is among the sports' best on this track type, and Larson struggles to see the finish. If it were pretty much any matchup at -112, I'd be inclined to pass. But given how much the performance of these two differs on these tracks, I simply can't do it.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.