NASCAR Betting Picks: Ally 400

For most of this year, betting value in the NASCAR Cup Series has come from the second- and third-tier drivers.

This makes sense. Four drivers have three wins already, and when you win, your odds go down. Things have become more concentrated at the top, making it tougher to bet favorites as their odds shorten.

In Nashville, though, we get a break from peppering those secondary options. At long last, we can bet one of the favorites.

Let's dig into which of those favorites we're targeting, why they're a value despite a short number, and other bets that stand out in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds prior to practice and qualifying.

Nashville Betting Picks

Denny Hamlin to Win (+650)

When FanDuel's odds for Nashville opened, Denny Hamlin was +600 to win. Even this was more generous than other books as Hamlin is as short as +525 elsewhere.

I was dead even with the market at +600. But now that he's lengthened to +650, we can feel free to fire.

My model has Hamlin as the favorite to win this week, sitting at 14.4%. His new implied odds are 13.3%, down a percentage point from 14.3% prior to the lengthening. When your odds are this short, even a minor lengthening can make a major difference, and that's what we got with Hamlin.

The reason the model loves Hamlin is simple: he enters having won each of the past three races on concrete. He won last year's playoff race in Bristol and has followed that up with wins in Bristol and Dover this year. Concrete is a unique surface, so that matters as they head to another concrete surface in Nashville.

That speed has translated to Nashville, as well. Hamlin has led 195 laps here -- ranking second behind only Kyle Larson -- and Hamlin has finished first or second in three of the past four stages. If they're racing on concrete, Hamlin's going to be in contention.

This certainly isn't a bet where I'm massively off market, so I understand if you want a bigger edge to bet something. I'm just willing to bite on Hamlin, specifically, given how he has run on concrete and at this track specifically.

Kyle Busch to Finish Top 5 (+700)

We're in real danger of Kyle Busch checking out on this season. He's 45 points out of the playoffs, and he wrecked himself under caution last week. The DGAF meter is spiking.

Buuuuuuuuuuuuut the model doesn't measure apathy, so I think we should at least consider this.

Many of Busch's issues have come while he has been running well. He was running in the top 10 in both Gateway and Sonoma before he was taken out by another driver, and he scored points in the first stage at Iowa. The speed hasn't always been the issue.

Busch's best upside has come in the intermediate rules package. He won the pole, led 34 laps, and finished fourth in Dover, his lone top five at a non-drafting track. He also led double-digit laps in Vegas, Kansas, and Gateway, all of which use this rules package.

Busch has also led double-digit laps in all three Nashville races, including last year in his first race at the track with Richard Childress Racing. When you combine that with what he did in Dover, I do think there's cause for hope.

I've got value on Busch across the board: +5000 to win, +700 to finish top 5, and +210 to finish top 10. This is just the best value for me as I have Busch at 20.0% to finish top 5, up from 12.5% implied. You can pick your preferred route or go with a laddered approach in betting multiple markets, but for me, the top-five is the way to go.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to Finish Top 10 (+700)

Last night, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was +1400 to finish top 10 at FanDuel. Clearly, someone noticed and got it bet down to +700.

There's still value even at the new number for me.

My model has Stenhouse at 14.6% to finish top 10, up from 12.5% implied. Similar to Hamlin, this all comes down to speed on concrete.

Bristol has always been arguably Stenhouse's best track. He was sixth at Nashville in its Cup Series debut, and he was runner-up at Dover the year after. This year in Dover, Stenhouse had great speed, earning points in both stages before a crash ruined his day.

Obviously, it would have been better to get Stenhouse at +1400. But I'm still fully down at this number with how strong he has proven to be on this surface.

Carson Hocevar to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

Once we get a larger sample, I'd expect Carson Hocevar to be another driver we target regularly on concrete. It was a plus surface for him back in his NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series days.

Back in 2022 -- before his full breakout -- Hocevar finished third in the Truck Series race at Nashville. The following season, he claimed his second career win, taking the lead with 40 laps left and never relinquishing it. He also finished fourth at Bristol with a fifth-place average running position later that season.

More impressive for Hocevar that Bristol weekend, though, was what he did in the Cup race. He was filling in for Legacy Motor Club, and he cranked out an 11th-place finish legitimized by his 13th-place average running position. Given his lack of experience in a Cup car at that time, it was one heck of a run.

Hocevar has had some pop weeks in this rules package. He had a top-15 average running position in Las Vegas, and both of his top-10 finishes this year have come on 1.5-mile tracks.

My model has Hocevar at 12.2% to finish top 10, up from 8.3% implied. I'd rather be too early than too late when the odds are this forgiving, so I do think now is a good time to buy into the youngster.

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Which driver stands out to you for the Ally 400? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.