NASCAR Betting Picks: All-Star Weekend

For this week's NASCAR All-Star festivities, it's all about having some fun.

We've got a bunch of unknowns entering this weekend. That includes the track after a re-pave, a new tire combination, and even who will be in the field for the main event.

So, if you're betting this race, proceed with caution. I've got a model for this race, but there's a chance it's total dog doo because of those unknowns. Thus, I'd lower your typical bet size if you decide to fire away, accounting for the fact that there's increased uncertainty.

With that said, I agree with my model on a couple of spots to the point I think they're worth a look. Let's dig into those now based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, and then we can circle back and add bets later should more value arise.

NASCAR All-Star Main Event Betting Picks

Denny Hamlin to Win (+500)

(UPDATE: Hamlin has since shortened to +400 to win. My sims have cooled a bit on him -- down to 17.4% -- meaning he's no longer a value with his implied odds up to 20.0%.)

Given the amount of uncertainty, this is a short number at which to back Denny Hamlin. But my model adores him this week.

Even with increased uncertainty in there, I've got Hamlin at a whopping 19.8% to win. That's even if we assume the three best cars from The Open advance to the Main. In other words, it could wind up even high on Hamlin once the green flag drops.

This is for a few reasons. First, Hamlin is great on short, flat tracks. He won Richmond earlier this year and had a top-six average running position in both Martinsville and Phoenix.

Second, Hamlin excels as tires degrade. He used those skills to win Bristol, and it was a factor in Richmond, as well.

Typically, on a new surface, we wouldn't care about that. But with the alternate tires, it's possible managing your equipment becomes more important.

I wouldn't blame you if you didn't want to fire on Hamlin at this short of a number. You can always see how things play out in practice and the heat races before proceeding further. But for me, Hamlin's the play if you want exposure to the Main Event.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Christopher Bell to Podium (+260)

If Christopher Bell were a bit longer to win, I'd be happy to fire there. But the value on his podium market is tough to pass up.

Bell has shown good speed this weekend. He was third in single-lap speed and led the field in five-lap average during practice on Saturday. His pit crew was fast Saturday, as well, helping him lock up the third spot on the grid.

Bell has always excelled on short, flat tracks. He won in Phoenix earlier this year and won a pair of races on these tracks in 2022.

As a result, my model is a good chunk above market on him both to win at +1000 and to podium at +260. I just personally prefer the podium market as it helps us sidestep Hamlin and others.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chase Elliott to Win (+1400)

Similar to Bell, Chase Elliott has shown good speed thus far during the weekend. He won't start as close to the front, but he could well finish there.

On Friday, Elliott was fourth in single-lap speed, five-lap average, and fastest 10 laps. No matter how you measured it, Elliott was fast.

Elliott will start 15th, but that's deceptive. He sped on pit road during qualifying, leading to a 10-second penalty. But with multiple grooves and varied tire strategies, I do think we'll see some passing tonight.

There's a chance the model is too high on Elliott, but it has him 10.3% to win right now. The implied odds are 6.7%, so I think he's worth a roll of the dice here.

NASCAR All-Star Open Betting Picks

Bubba Wallace to Win (+650)

(UPDATE: Wallace has since shortened to +350 to win The Open. My model has him at 19.7%, down from 22.2% implied, so the value in Wallace has dried up.)

Even above Hamlin, the biggest value of the weekend is Bubba Wallace in The Open.

Wallace has made big gains on short, flat tracks since joining 23XI Racing. He has back-to-back top-10s in New Hampshire, and he has two top-six average running positions in Richmond since the start of last year.

There are other quality drivers in the field, including the favorite, Ty Gibbs. But my model has Wallace as the class of the bunch, putting his win odds at 21.0%. That's well above his 13.3% implied odds.

If you want to sidestep Gibbs and give yourself more flexibility, I'd have Wallace at +154 to race his way into the Main Event, should those odds be posted. With that market not currently available, though, I think Wallace is more than worthy of consideration at +650.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if you win your first bet of at least $5! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which drivers stand out to you for All-Star Weekend? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.