NASCAR Betting Guide: Go Bowling at the Glen

The narrative stars have aligned to give us a juicy weekend for the NASCAR Cup Series in central New York.

With just two races left before the playoffs, Chase Elliott needs a win in order to advance. He nearly got the job done last week, but he fell one second short behind Michael McDowell, who punched his ticket to the Round of 16.

It just so happens that arguably Elliott's best track is lurking on Sunday. Elliott is a two-time winner at Watkins Glen, and he has led nearly half the laps here the past four races. For a guy who is desperate for victory lane, it doesn't get much better than this.

The problem is that sportsbooks ain't no dummies. They know all of this. So while Elliott did open at +500 in some spots, the longest you can get now is +350, which is where he's at in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Watkins Glen.

When he was +500, Elliott was a value by my model. I've got him at 18.7% to win this week, up from 16.7% implied at that number.

But with his implied odds up to 22.2%, you're buying at the wrong time.

The problem is that Elliott and his teammate, Kyle Larson (+500), suck up a lot of win equity in my model without being values themselves. As a result, there are zero outrights I want to touch prior to practice and qualifying.

Luckily, there are some enticing options elsewhere, and we can always add outrights later in the week.

So, which bets are the best values entering the weekend at FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's take a look.

Ross Chastain to Finish Top 10 (+230)

Ross Chastain's recent form is odd at best and confounding at worst. The model knows that. But it still doesn't think his top-10 odds should be this long.

Chastain had a high-profile run in with Larson at Darlington, and it led to a public scolding from Rick Hendrick. In 11 races since, Chastain has just 3 top-10s compared to 6 finishes of 20th or worse.

In other words, he's been booty.

That has translated to road courses, too. In three road-course races since then, Chastain's finishes are 10th, 22nd, and 17th, and he had a teammate on the podium in each of the final two. It's not just the Trackhouse cars; it seems like it's Chastain himself.

Again, though, the model knows this, and it's accounted for. And it still puts his top-10 odds at 39.7%.

At +230, Chastain's top-10 odds are similar to drivers who haven't shown much of a pulse on road courses this year. He at least has, even with the dwindling form. It could come back to bite me, but I'd like to lock this one in now even while being skeptical of Chastain and how things have gone for him recently.

Austin Dillon to Finish Top 10 (+600)

The evergreen statement here is to shop around. You can find Austin Dillon at pretty long odds across the board this week. But even if the best number you can get is +600, I still show value on Dillon.

Dillon hasn't finished better than 16th at a road course yet this year. But his average running positions have still been respectable, and those finishes have been dragged down by incidents at COTA and the Chicago street course.

Overall in the Next-Gen era, Dillon has two top-10s in 10 road-course races, and he was 11th in another. That's a 20% hit rate, up from his implied odds here of 14.3%.

As Dillon has improved on road courses, he has ticked up at Watkins Glen, as well. His past two finishes here are 15th and 17th, and he had a top-17 average running position in both. I've got him at 18.0% to finish top 10, a big enough gap over the implied odds to justify latching on.

Joey Logano Over Kevin Harvick (-112)

I've got value on Joey Logano to finish top 10 at +210, so you could take that. But I much prefer just betting him to top Kevin Harvick, given each guy's form on road courses this year.

In the Next-Gen era, Harvick has beaten Logano in 6 of 10 road-course, so I might be a donkey. But in 2023, specifically, Logano has had a top-15 average running position in 3 of 4 races, something Harvick has done just once.

Logano should also have the edge at Watkins Glen, specifically. It's an equipment-heavy track, and although Team Penske has had its issues this year, Stewart-Haas Racing's have been worse. We saw this play out in Watkins Glen last year when Logano finished nine spots ahead of Harvick and had an average running position that was 13 spots better.

I do agree with the model that Logano is undervalued for a top-10. He's 35.9% for me there versus 32.3% implied. I'd just rather take this route and fade Harvick on a track type where he has struggled this year.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Kyle Larson to Win (+650)

Although Hendrick teammate William Byron snagged the headlines Saturday, Kyle Larson was fast, too, and his odds to win lengthened. They lengthened enough where he's now a value for me.

Larson -- thanks to an underwhelming showing by Chase Elliott -- is now the favorite to win by my model. He ranked fourth in single-lap speed and third in five-lap average during practice before qualifying fifth. Elliott will start 15th.

Larson has definitely underwhelmed on road courses this year. He has no finishes better than fourth, and that came at the Chicago street course. But Watkins Glen -- where equipment matters more -- should suit a team like this, and Larson has demonstrated that by winning here in back-to-back seasons.

Larson's implied win odds are 13.3%, and I've got a healthy enough gap above that to be on Larson even at short odds.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Tyler Reddick to Win (+1600)

Unlike Larson, Tyler Reddick wasn't necessarily lighting up the time sheets on Saturday. He was 10th in single-lap speed and qualified 8th. This also historically has not been his best road course. Still, +1600 is a long number for a driver this good.

Since the start of last year, Reddick has won 3 of 10 road-course races. Only one has come since his switch to Toyota, but that was in dominant fashion at COTA, and he had a sixth-place average running position last week in Indianapolis. His Toyota team owner, Denny Hamlin, won the pole, giving at least some faith in the manufacturer.

We know 23XI has speed, which is great at Watkins Glen, and we know Reddick can wheel it on a track like this. His implied odds are 5.9%, and I've still got him at 8.7% to win. Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell is also a value by my model at +1600, but with Reddick's win odds being higher, I'll side with him between the two.

Think a driver is undervalued entering this week? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Watkins Glen and see where you think the best value lies.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.