NASCAR Betting Guide: Bass Pro Shops Night Race

I thought entering this week we'd be able to get good value on some of the second-tier drivers in the outright market for the Bristol night race.

Guys like Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, and Chris Buescher all have a blend of quality form on relevant tracks and a good history on concrete. I was prepared to bet any of them should they open at +1500 or longer to win.

But sportsbooks ain't no dummies.

The longest odds for this trio in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race belong to Blaney at +1400. Keselowski has the fifth-shortest odds at +850, and Buescher is +1200.

Back to the drawing board.

The problem is that value didn't arise anywhere else, either. There are zero drivers with win odds higher than 2.0% in my simulations who have higher odds there than their implied odds at FanDuel. Thus, I'm going to sit out the outright market until we see cars on track. That should shake things up enough where we can dip our toes into the water.

For now, I'm willing to fire on just two bets. It's a bit of a bummer for such a fun race, but I'd much rather have a light card than force it with bets that are bad values.

Here are those two spots for now, and we can circle back later if more value arises.

Chase Briscoe to Finish Top 10 (+340)

(UPDATE: This number is still available at +340, but Briscoe slipped a bit to 22.2% in my model post-qualifying. If you didn't bet it before, it's no longer a value, so I'd hold off.)

The NASCAR Cup Series is running its intermediate rules package for Bristol, and it's a package where Chase Briscoe has been absolutely hideous this year. But he has perked up enough recently where I feel comfortable betting him, at least in a more forgiving market.

The big difference-maker for me was Darlington. That track also uses the intermediate package, and Briscoe qualified 12th, had a 16th-place average running position, and finished 15th there. It's obviously not flashy, but it's more in line with what you would expect from Briscoe than what he had been putting out earlier in the year.

If Bristol skews toward a more driver-centric track, Briscoe should benefit. All six of his top-10s this year have come on either superspeedways or places where the driver plays a larger role. Stewart-Haas Racing's poor speed this year shouldn't impact him as much on a half-mile track.

Briscoe has a strong history at Bristol. He has had a top-16 average running position in both Cup Series races here, and he finished his time as an Xfinity Series regular with three straight top-two finishes. My model has Briscoe at 24.7% to finish top 10, up from 22.7% implied.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Over Michael McDowell (-112)

(UPDATE: This has since shortened to -134. Stenhouse, though, qualified poorly while McDowell will start in the top five, so my model now views it as a toss-up. It's an easy pass at -134.)

Both Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Michael McDowell are in must-win spots if they want to advance to the Round of 12. Thus, motivation and strategy here should be equal.

But only one of these guys feasts at Bristol, and that's Stenhouse.

Throughout his career, Stenhouse has 13 top-fives on non-drafting tracks. Four of them have come in Bristol concrete races, and he has added two more in the Bristol dirt race. That latter aspect doesn't matter much here, but this is arguably Stenhouse's best track.

The same is not true for McDowell. He has just one career top-10 in 23 races. Some of that was in less competitive equipment, and he has improved of late, but he has never shown the juice of Stenhouse.

My model has Stenhouse a full tier above McDowell. Laying -112 is not nothing, but it's a bit light when you consider how well this track meshes with Stenhouse's strengths.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chris Buescher to Win (+1800)

I finally got my wish. One of the three drivers I was targeting entering the week qualified 20th, and his odds slipped as a result.

But I'm still just as confident that Chris Buescher can push for a repeat on Saturday night.

Although Buescher qualified poorly, he was fast during practice. Even after adjustments for groups, Buescher ranked second in single-lap speed, five-lap average, and 10-lap average. He was cooking.

Buescher will start 20th, but that's not a huge deal. That's the exact spot he started when he won this race last year.

I've got Buescher at 6.2% to win, up from 5.3% implied. I'm more than happy to take that in what has turned into a breakout season for Buescher.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Corey LaJoie to Finish Top 10 (+2200)

Quite frankly, I'm surprised Corey LaJoie's odds are this long. LaJoie qualified 10th and had good speed in practice, and books are typically more likely to over-react than under-react. But no complaints!

LaJoie -- after making group adjustments -- ranked 12th in single-lap speed and 11th in five-lap average. That's much better than you'd expect from a driver at these odds.

LaJoie also has a good history on concrete. He has finished inside the top 20 in all five concrete races during the Next-Gen era, including a 14th-place run in Dover this year and a 15th-place finish in Bristol last year.

My model isn't all that high on LaJoie with 9.1% top-10 odds. But that easily clears his 4.4% implied odds, so no complaints here.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace Over Joey Logano (+108)

Someone will have to explain this one to me. My model viewed these two as being on equal footing prior to practice. Then Bubba Wallace dusted Joey Logano during that one session and qualified better. So I'm a bit puzzled.

Wallace will roll off ninth and ranked eighth in single-lap speed and ninth in five-lap average following group adjustments. Logano will start 28th, and his five-lap average put him just 16th.

At least on Saturday, there was a full tier between these two. Now my model has the same, grading Wallace with an average finish that's two spots better than Logano. I'll happily take plus money on Wallace as a result.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ryan Blaney Over Kyle Busch (+122)

I can't quite get to a Blaney outright, but I can get exposure via this market.

This one isn't the same as the Wallace matchup as Blaney and Kyle Busch are in the same tier in my model. But Blaney is higher in that tier despite having slightly worse speed than Busch during practice.

Blaney and Busch will roll off 11th and 15th, respectively, so again, there's not a big gap here. But getting +122 in one that I have slightly leaning toward the underdog is a really nice price. So even though I'm fine with Busch, this price pushes me to bet against him with Blaney.

Have a driver you think will perform well on Saturday night? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds to see whether they're undervalued in the market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.