3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 4/24/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals

Nationals Moneyline (-106)

The Baltimore Orioles are in the midst of a brutal five-game losing streak, including two consecutive losses against the Washington Nationals. Two of the Orioles' last three losses have been by scorelines of 24-2 and 7-0.

Considering the starting pitcher matchup, I'm expecting another Washington win. The O's have been dreadful against left-handed pitchers, touting the lowest wOBA (.229) in the split while scoring the ninth-fewest runs. This is a stark difference compared to Baltimore holding the 4th-highest wOBA (.341) while scoring the 10th-most runs when seeing righties.

MacKenzie Gore isn't just your typical lefty, either. Through five starts, he holds a 3.41 ERA, 3.06 xERA, 2.19 SIERA, and 2.29 xFIP. His most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball and curveball, and the Orioles are in the bottom half of runs above average against both pitches. Gore has pitched for six innings in four of five starts, helping avoid Washington's bullpen -- which owns the highest ERA.

Baltimore's bullpen is also struggling, allowing seventh-highest ERA. The starting pitcher matchup is where we find a deciding factor as Cade Povich has a 6.38 ERA, 6.60 xERA, 4.23 SIERA, and 4.25 xFIP. Plus, he's in the 25th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 9th percentile of hard-hit percentage surrendered.

Meanwhile, Washington has heavily leaned on launching home runs, boasting the 11th most home runs per game paired with the 12th-highest home run percentage.

Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 8.0 Runs (-105)

Two exceptional starters will be on the mound tonight for the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. Drew Rasmussen is off to a blistering start with a 0.87 ERA, 2.49 xERA, 2.93 SIERA, and 2.80 xFIP through four starts. While Corbin Burnes' 4.64 ERA paired with a 4.41 SIERA are underwhelming thus far, he's been an All-Star the past four seasons while winning one Cy Young.

We know Rasmussen has the stuff to dominate right now, and that's going to be needed with the Diamondbacks holding the third-most runs scored. Arizona is among the top of the ranks against most pitch types this season, but Rasmussen does have one pitch he can lean into tonight. He uses a sinker for 22.4% of his pitches, and it holds his second-highest put-away rate. Meanwhile, the D-backs are 13th in runs above average against sinkers. Getting mediocre anywhere from this Arizona batting order is a win.

Rasmussen also does an excellent job of limiting homers as he's carried a 0.80 HR/9 or better in every season since 2021. He's yet to give up a big fly in 2025, and the Diamondbacks have the third-highest SLG and post the sixth-most dingers per contest.

Our biggest concern for this side could be the pitching of Burnes. He's off to a slow start, but this could be a case of positive regression. He's currently on pace to post career-low clips in SIERA and xFIP by a good margin, but we've barely scratched the surface of 2025's MLB season. Fortunately, the Rays are a favorable matchup with the 13th-fewest runs scored. Burnes mostly leans on a cutter, and Tampa Bay has logged the 12th-fewest runs above average against this pitch.

Furthermore, both bullpens are in the top seven for xFIP. MasseyRatings' game projections have this total reaching only seven runs.

Texas Rangers at Athletics

Rangers Under 4.5 Runs (-111)

After finishing 18th in runs scored and 23rd in wOBA a season ago, the Texas Rangers' offense hasn't been much better in the early going. Through 24 games, Texas is 27th in runs scored and 25th in wOBA. The Athletics initially look like a promising matchup as they've given up the fourth-most runs per game and fifth-highest batting average. However, the A's are putting a quality starter on the mound tonight (a rare occasion for them).

J.T. Ginn has flourished through two starts with a 3.60 ERA, 3.03 xERA, 2.62 SIERA, and 2.20 xFIP. Perhaps his biggest concern so far is ranking in the 3rd percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed. Texas has the 8th-lowest SLG and 13th-lowest hard-hit percentage, though, and Corey Seager was just placed on the IL.

Ginn has totaled six and seven strikeouts in his first two starts, giving him an 11.7 K/9 while he's sitting in the 85th percentile of K%. The Rangers have the 14th-highest K% and have recorded double-digit strikeouts in three of the last five. His strikeout success has been mostly thanks to ranking in the 56th percentile of chase rate, and Texas has the highest chase percentage in baseball.

Everything surrounding this pick is leaning on a small sample size from Ginn. He has only two starts under his belt this season, and the rookie made only six starts in 2024. However, the numbers seem to match up well for one of the A's top arms. I'm willing to hang my hat on the Rangers' early struggles at the plate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.