Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Jack Link's 500 in Talladega

For as much as we think about longshots whenever NASCAR's at a superspeedway, Talladega's different.

Because this is a bigger and wider track than Daytona and Atlanta, you tend to see fewer crashes. As a result, more big names survive to the checkered flag, making it tougher for a true underdog to emerge.

Even with that, you do still get a discount on the bigger names in the betting markets. That discount is big enough this week for me to see value in a bona fide star.

Let's dig into it all now. We'll start by laying out my model's simulations of the race, and then we'll discuss my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

NASCAR Predictions for Talladega

NASCAR Betting Picks for Talladega

William Byron to Win (+1600)

Given William Byron is a four-time winner on drafting tracks during the Next Gen era, I've got no idea why he's +1600. I'm happy to get him on my betslip, though.

The discount is likely because those four wins -- plus his other superspeedway win before 2022 -- all came at either Daytona or Atlanta. But even at Talladega, Byron has four straight top-seven finishes, two of which were podiums. It's not as if he's bad here; he just hasn't won yet.

My model has him breaking the seal on that 6.8% of the time this week, up from 5.9% implied. That's enough value for me to take the plunge.

Josh Berry to Finish Top 5 (+500)

I'm still pretty skeptical of Josh Berry on pack tracks, given that his background is as a short-track racer. He has shown upside recently, though, and he's in the right equipment to get the job done on this track type.

That equipment is with Wood Brothers Racing, a Team Penske affiliate. The Penske cars tend to dominate these tracks. In fact, Berry's predecessor at Wood Brothers -- Harrison Burton -- won at Daytona last year. Equipment may not matter a ton at these tracks, but drivers in this stable get an obvious boost.

We saw that out of Berry in Atlanta. He led 56 laps, won a stage, and had a sixth-place average running position. He also had an eighth-place average running position at Daytona last year while running for Stewart Haas Racing.

Of the Penske fleet, my model is easily lowest on Berry. His top five odds are 17.6%, and the other Penske cars are all at 26.8% or higher. But that 17.6% is still above his implied odds at +500, so I'll buy into the dominant team and hope it can help Berry get better results than he has had to date at these tracks.

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Which bets stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.