NASCAR Best Bets: The Brickyard 400

After a three-year hiatus, the NASCAR Cup Series is back on the oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Brickyard 400.

Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and whew, buddy, did we grow to miss this version of the Brickyard.

Not only is this a historic venue, but this was a race where the stars typically shined brightest. Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt won the first two races here. Gordon won five total times with Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Dale Jarrett, and Tony Stewart the other multi-time winners. That's a whole lotta former champions kissing the bricks.

Because of how top-heavy Indy has been, my model is actually barely below market on Denny Hamlin at +490 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, and it's a bit above on Kyle Larson (+700) and William Byron (+1300). If you want a duel between the circuit's stars, you're likely to get it.

But the driver with the third-best win odds in my model is the biggest value of the week. Let's start there and then dig into other spots where I've got value prior to practice and qualifying.

Betting Picks for NASCAR in Indianapolis

Martin Truex Jr. to Win (+1200)

(UPDATE: Truex has since lengthened to +2200 to win. He was pretty slow in Friday's practice, so this is justified, and my model now has him at just 4.2% to win. That's in line with his new implied odds of 4.4%, so Truex is no longer a value.)

Martin Truex Jr. was probably one of the drivers happiest to see the Cup Series run the Indy road course for three years. In 16 races at the oval, he has just three top-10 finishes.

That track record is deceptive, though, and Truex's form says he should be shorter than +1200.

A lot of Truex's poor finishes at Indy were due to bad luck. In 2017, he finished second in each of the first two stages. He took the lead on lap 103 but then crashed while battling Busch for the lead shortly after. He failed to finish two of three races after that, as well.

When Truex's form was best, he either had bad luck or they were running the road course. I don't think we should hold his history here against him.

Truex has had solid speed this year. He had a fifth-place average running position in Vegas, finished fourth in Kansas, and had great pace in practice at Pocono. Although the results haven't been there, the building blocks for a win have been.

My model has Truex at 11.7% to win, well clear of his 7.7% implied odds. And again, that's even while the model is also high on Hamlin, Larson, and Byron, so I don't think it's underestimating them. This gives me the final nudge to bite on Truex despite some befuddling finishes.

Ross Chastain to Finish Top 10 (+145)

(UPDATE: Chastain has since lengthened to +210 to finish top 10. My model has also soured on him, and he's now down to 26.0%, so Chastain is no longer a value.)

Outside of the favorites, the lone other driver who grades out as a value to win for me is Ross Chastain (+3700). I don't mind if you want to go there, though the value is much thinner than it is on Truex.

My preferred market for Chastain is for him to finish top 10.

Chastain is in a rut right now. He has finished outside the top 20 in three straight races, failing to finish twice. It has pushed him down to just 27 points above the playoff cutline. This could lead to his prioritizing stage points, but that's less of an issue at Indianapolis than at Pocono or on a road course.

The speed is still there. Chastain led 45 laps in Nashville before crashing, and he had top-10 average running positions in Texas, Kansas, and Charlotte. With just one top-10 finish across those three races, it's clear Chastain is due for positive regression.

My model has Chastain at 46.1% to finish top 10, up from 40.8% implied. As mentioned, I do show value on him to win (and finish top five at +500), but this is a big cushion in a very forgiving market.

Chase Briscoe to Finish Top 10 (+600)

(UPDATE: Briscoe has since shortened to +270 to finish top 10. The value here has fully dried up.)

This is Chase Briscoe's hometown race. He needs a win if he wants to make the playoffs.

Lock in, narrative truthers. Briscoe's your boy this week.

I will -- begrudgingly -- admit that Briscoe brings appeal beyond just the narratives. His speed has been much better this year than last as he has had a top-15 average running position in four of seven races on larger, non-drafting tracks. One of those was last week in Pocono, where he finished 15th.

If Briscoe were among the favorites, we'd need a lot more to justify betting him to finish top 10. He'll need a bit of luck in order to get that done.

But with his implied odds at just 14.3%, he's a value. My model has him at 18.7%. Clearly, it's skeptical of him as those are just the 20th best top-10 odds in the field. With the market being even lower, though, Briscoe's worth a look in a race that will have his full attention.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Denny Hamlin to Win (+500)

Hamlin was the runaway favorite for me before qualifying, sitting at 16.2%. He was fast in both practice and qualifying, enough so that he's now a value at +500.

Hamlin ranked third in single-lap speed, second in five-lap average, and second in qualifying. This validates the speed he showed last week in Pocono, where he likely had the fastest car in the field.

Hamlin has made no secret about how desperately he wants to win here and claim the final NASCAR crown jewel he's yet to gain. He volunteered to conduct a tire test here to gain extra notes on the track, and we're seeing the fruits of that now.

My model is slobbering over Hamlin, putting him at 24.3% to win. That's well clear of his implied odds, so sign me up even at a short number.

Christopher Bell to Finish Top 5 (+280)

Given Hamlin's speed, we should be high on his teammate, Christopher Bell, as well. The model is definitely there.

Bell will start 18th, but he was fast in practice Friday. He was fourth in single-lap speed and ninth in 10-lap average. The qualifying pace doesn't appear to represent his true strength.

This big, fast oval definitely isn't Bell's best track type as he tends to spike at places where tires wear heavily. He did, though, win in Charlotte, and he had a fourth-place average running position in Nashville. He just has a tendency to get himself in trouble, which can ruin good runs.

Even with that accounted for, I have Bell at 33.9% to finish top five, up from 26.3% implied. I think we should be willing to buy into Bell at this mark.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 10 (+750)

Austin Cindric will start all the way back in 38th after slapping the wall in qualifying. His car was largely clean, though, so no backup was required, and Cindric could have the speed to make a charge.

Prior to that incident, Cindric had ranked 15th in single-lap practice speed and 7th in 5-lap average. Given his team owner owns Indianapolis Motor Speedway, you'd expect them to emphasize this race, and we got at least some signal of that before Cindric's qualifying issues.

Cindric obviously got his win in Gateway, another flatter track using the same rules package. His pace in Pocono was simply fine last week, but we don't need him to have blown the doors off to be a value at this number.

My model has Cindric at 18.4% to finish top 10, up from 11.8% implied. He'll need to make a bunch of passes at a place where track position matters, but I think these odds are forgiving enough to justify it.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds for Indianapolis to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.