NASCAR Best Bets: Cook Out 400

After what felt like a decade, NASCAR is finally back off its Olympic break.

We're about to be rewarded for our patience during a two-week pause with a new twist in Sunday's Cook Out 400 at Richmond: two different options for tires for teams during the Cup race.

This is something they experimented with during the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro to mixed results, but they'll roll out a soft and a hard tire for the first time during a points-paying race this week. It adds a bit extra volatility to a track that hasn't produced thrilling races during the Next-Gen era.

The volatility does impact betting as there is a bit extra uncertainty, but at the end of the day, we typically see the fastest teams rise at this track. I wouldn't expect Sunday to be much different.

With that in mind, let's lay out my top bets for Sunday's race prior to practice and qualifying, based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Richmond.

NASCAR Best Bets for Richmond

Brad Keselowski to Win (+2200)

(UPDATE: Keselowski has since lengthened to +2600 to win. After practice and qualifying, he's down to 3.5% to win for me, which is below his new implied odds of 3.7%. Thus, I wouldn't add Keselowski at current odds.)

FanDuel's giving you a discount on ol' Kez here. And it's one I'm inclined to take.

As far as I can see, Brad Keselowski isn't longer than +2000 at any other sportsbook, and he's as short as +1325 at one. I've got fair odds on him at +1692, so in those spots, he's not always a value.

But at +2200? Let's ride.

Keselowski first started showing upside at RFK Racing on tracks with heavy tire wear, similar to what we'll see in Richmond. He had a fifth-place average running position in last year's fall Richmond race and finished top-six in both Darlington races last year, as well.

This year, that upside has gotten a boost. Keselowski was on the podium at Bristol, where tire wear was off the charts, and then he won Darlington. Given his level of experience, we shouldn't be surprised Keselowski would excel at these setups.

Keselowski is a two-time Richmond winner, and he enters with three straight top-10s at the track. I agree with the model that this number is too long on him.

William Byron to Finish Top 5 (+250)

(UPDATE: Byron has since lengthened to +440 to finish top 5. All the Hendrick cars were slow in practice, but they had better speed in qualifying. Still, my model has pushed him down to 26.5% to finish top 5. That's above his new implied odds of 18.5%, so while it's a bummer for those who bet +250, I do think there's value at the lengthened number.)

I've got quite a bit of value on William Byron to win at +1700, as well. His track history scares me enough to stick to just the top-five, but I won't blame you if you want to gun for the upside.

Let's start with those concerns at Richmond. In 12 career races here, Byron has just one top-five and three top-10s. In those metrics, it's one of his worst tracks.

Those finishes undersell him recently, though. Byron has led 100-plus laps in two of five Next-Gen races here and very nearly won one of them. He was running third last year for a late-race restart when he got wrecked, leading to a 24th-place finish.

That's why I'm willing to overlook the finishes. Byron's form has also been trending back up after a late-spring lull as he finished second at Iowa in June.

All told, my model has Byron at 40.1% to finish top 5, up from 28.6%. You could also bet him -112 to top Ty Gibbs at FanDuel, but I like the upside provided by this number.

Chase Briscoe to Finish Top 10 (+700)

(UPDATE: Briscoe has since shortened to +550 to finish top 10. My model now has him at 28.4%, still above his new implied odds of 15.4%. That makes Briscoe the biggest value currently on the board.)

Chase Briscoe's best Cup Series track type has always been short, flat tracks. Thus, I honestly can't understand why his odds here are so long.

The Cup Series has run four races on short, flat tracks this year. Briscoe's finishes in those are 9th, 18th, 10th, and 2nd. That should be justification enough.

The 18th-place run was in Richmond, and he hasn't finished top-10 here in seven Cup Series races. But he was 11th or 12th in three of those, and his average running position has been worse than 19th just twice.

Even factoring in middling track history, I have Briscoe at a whopping 25.6% to finish top 10, way up from 12.5% implied. It's possible I'm too high, but I also think the market is too low here.

Kyle Larson Over Christopher Bell (+118)

(UPDATE: Larson has since shortened to -104 in this matchup. After practice and qualifying, my model does have Bell as the proper favorite, so I wouldn't add Larson at his shortened odds.)

Christopher Bell has been a demon on short, flat tracks this year, winning in both Phoenix and New Hampshire.

At Richmond, specifically, though, I'd give the edge to Kyle Larson.

In five races here during the Next-Gen era, Larson has finished ahead of Bell four times. That includes a win in last year's spring race and a podium this spring when Larson led 144 laps. Bell has consistently run up front, but Larson has had better upside.

Larson also hasn't been a scrub on short, flat tracks this year. In addition to the Richmond podium, he was runner-up in Martinsville and fourth in New Hampshire. Phoenix was his lone true stinker in the bunch.

My model has Larson as the second most likely winner, trailing only Denny Hamlin. Bell's third, but we're getting plus money on Larson to top him. I'm willing to take that despite Bell's dominance on this track type.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Finish Top 10 (+120)

As mentioned before, the Hendrick cars were slow in practice but rebounded with solid qualifying efforts. I think the market has moved too far against Byron.

After both sessions, Byron is now 51.7% to finish top 10 for me, up from 45.5% implied. The bigger value -- as discussed in the update on the previous Byron section -- is for him to finish top 5 at +440. But I'm comfortable enough with Byron to add a bit more to the previous position.

Byron was seventh in the spring race here, first in Martinsville, sixth at Darlington (another track with tons of tire falloff), and second in Iowa. New Hampshire didn't go well for him, but that was the outlier this year.

I don't mind if you want to take a swing at Byron to win at +2800 rather than to finish top 10. But overall, there is still value to be had with him.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Todd Gilliland to Finish Top 10 (+480)

Todd Gilliland has been knocking on the door of a top 10 on this track type for a while. I think he's got a shot to finally break through tonight.

Gilliland this year finished between 12th and 15th in Martinsville, Darlington, Iowa, and New Hampshire. He added a top-10 average running position in New Hampshire to legitimize the good finish.

In practice, Gilliland's times dropped off on the longer runs, but he was 13th in five-lap average. It's hard to tell that's because he tore up his tires early or if traffic or a poor lap dragged him down, but there was at least some speed in the car.

Gilliland's implied odds here are just 17.2%, which grades out as a value for me. Combined with his improving form, I think there's enough here to justify adding him to the slip.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds for Richmond to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.