NASCAR Best Bets: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Saturday night's gonna be a banger.

There are just two races left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, leaving drivers outside the cutline just two more chances to win their way in.

For most of them, their best chance will come at a chaotic Daytona International Speedway.

This is a track where almost anybody can win. My model has no drivers with win odds higher than 6.7%, and 31 drivers are at least 1.0%. Eighteen of those 31 are not currently locked into the playoffs, so the stakes are through the roof.

We'll have to keep playoff implications in mind to an extent as some drivers could prioritize pushing teammates (or cars they own) to victory in order to secure their playoff berth.

That thought process will play into one of our bets below. Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Daytona and outline where we can find the best value.

NASCAR Betting Picks for Daytona

Austin Cindric to Win (+2800); Cindric to Finish Top 5 (+360)

(UPDATE: Cindric has since shortened to +2700 to win and +350 to finish top 5. There is still value in both shortened numbers, and Cindric remains my favorite bet on the board.)

With all three Team Penske cars locked into the playoffs, they can afford to be selfish at the end.

And, given the history of Penske drivers here, they probably will be.

Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have the highest win odds in my model. But of the trio in this stable, Austin Cindric presents the best value.

Cindric won the 2022 Daytona 500 thanks to a late block on Blaney, earning Cindric a playoff berth in his rookie season. That wasn't a blip for him, either, as he has two additional podiums and five total top-fives in 15 pack races during the Next-Gen era.

As a result, my model has Cindric super high overall and well above market. He's 5.6% to win for me and 24.6% to finish top 5, up from 3.5% and 21.7% implied, respectively. I think it's worthwhile to split your bet up, putting the largest chunk on his top-five market with a bit extra on the outright, giving you upside should Cindric finish the job once again.

Austin Hill to Finish Top 10 (+390)

(UPDATE: Hill has since shortened to +300 to finish top 10. That's above where my model has him, so Hill is no longer worth adding at this mark.)

Austin Hill has one job this weekend: push his Richard Childress Racing teammates to victory.

That's why I can't bet his outright, even though I am showing value at +9000.

But a top-10 bet? That I can stomach.

Hill is a menace on pack tracks in the Xfinity Series. In 14 races as a full-time driver, he has a whopping six wins and one additional runner-up. Half of those wins have come right here in Daytona.

The RCR superspeedway program is good in the Cup Series, too. Kyle Busch won Talladega last year, and Austin Dillon won Daytona in 2022. The results this year have been poor, but Busch did finish third in Atlanta.

If either Busch or Dillon is up front late, you can bet Hill will prioritize pushing them to victory lane as he is not eligible for the playoffs. But that won't impact his ability to finish top 10 as much as it will his win odds.

Thus, I'm willing to trust my model when it puts Hill at 22.3% to finish top 10, up from 20.4% implied. He's the only driver I have more than 1.1 percentage points above his implied odds in this market, so I'll take it and hope Hill's lower-series dominance follows him to Cup this weekend.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Noah Gragson to Win (+4400)

This is a lengthening for Noah Gragson from earlier in the week, and he moved enough to be a value for me.

I've got Gragson at 2.7% to win. His implied odds here are 2.2%. So, it's not a huge edge, but I do buy into Gragson's talent on this track type.

Gragson won at both Daytona and Talladega during his time in the Xfinity Series. Last year, he was having one of his better runs of the season in Talladega until getting mixed up with Ross Chastain.

In three starts with Stewart-Haas Racing, Gragson has finished 9th, 36th, and 3rd with that podium coming in Talladega. He was also fifth in Daytona back in 2022 while running for the part-time Beard Motorsports team.

It's not a huge edge, but Gragson is beyond the playoff cutline and -- unlike other playoff hopefuls Michael McDowell and Chase Briscoe -- will remain with Ford next year, potentially upping the odds he gets support. Thus, I'm fine with a sprinkle on Gragson as a longshot.

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Which drivers stand out to you on Saturday night? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds for Daytona to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.