Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Wild Card Series Preview

The marathon that is the MLB regular season has finally come to a close. And as the dust settles, we are left with a competitive Wild Card series in both leagues.

In the Senior Circuit, the NL West runner-up Arizona Diamondbacks will travel out to "America's Dairyland" to face the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers. Remember: these Wild Card series are best-of-three, hosted in one city.

With Game 1 set for Tuesday at 7 p.m. EST at American Family Field, the host Brewers (-174 ML) are favored in the first contest. On the mound, righties Corbin Burnes and Brandon Pfaadt are scheduled in the opener.

All MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Updated October 3rd, 2023 at 12:30 p.m. EST

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Series: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

• Series Moneyline:
  • Diamondbacks: +126
  • Brewers: -154
• Total Games:
  • 2 (-113)
  • 3 (-106)
• Correct Score:
  • Brewers 2-0 (+180)
  • Brewers 2-1 (+280)
  • Diamondbacks 2-0 (+390)
  • Diamondbacks 2-1 (+280)

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

• Diamondbacks (84-78/2nd NL West):
  • nERD: -0.05 (22nd)
  • Run differential: -15 (16th)
  • Home record: 43-38 (14th)
  • Away record: 41-40 (T10th)
  • OPS: .730 (17th)
  • HR/game: 1.02 (23rd)
  • wOBA: .317 (17th)
  • ERA: 4.48 (20th)
  • K%: 20.4% (27th)
  • BB%: 8.8% (16th)
• Brewers (92-70/1st NL Central):
  • nERD: 0.69 (13th)
  • Run differential: +81 (T11th)
  • Home record: 49-32 (T5th)
  • Away record: 43-38 (T8th)
  • OPS: .704 (23rd)
  • HR/game: 1.02 (24th)
  • wOBA: .309 (22nd)
  • ERA: 3.71 (1st)
  • K%: 23.2% (14th)
  • BB%: 9.7% (third-worst)

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Series Analysis

After missing the postseason tournament last year, Milwaukee is back in the playoffs again. They have qualified for postseason play in five of the past six seasons. Over that span, the Brew Crew has won three division titles (doing so again in 2023), advancing as far as the NLCS back in 2018.

Arizona has earned its first playoff berth since 2017 when they were expeditiously swept in three games by the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. Looking to leave a most lasting memory this time around, the D-backs are headed to only their seventh postseason in franchise history. Of course, the ball club has only existed since 1998.

The Brewers have been powered behind masterfully efficient pitching this year. With a team ERA of 3.71 through 2023, Milwaukee boasted the best mark in MLB with that figure. Along with the aforementioned Corbin Burnes (1.07 WHIP), their rotation has been anchored by 13-year veteran Wade Miley. Additionally, closer Devin Williams is an effective arm out of the bullpen.

The Diamondbacks have not been as consistently good on the mound compared to Milwaukee, but there have absolutely been bright spots in the desert. Starter Zac Gallen (17-9 record) was in the NL Cy Young running for the season's entirety. From there, Merrill Kelly (4.12 SIERA) was a high-quality No. 2 option in the rotation.

Offensively, the Brewers show a familiar core. Christian Yelich (club-leading 106 runs), Willy Adames (club-leading 24 homers) and William Contreras (.828 OPS) all played north of 140 games this past season. In a home series, will they be enough to boost Milwaukee into the NLDS?

In the desert, the biggest MLB storyline was soon-to-be-named 2023 NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll. The do-it-all outfielder smashed 25 balls over the fence while logging 54 stolen bases this season. With an excellent wOBA of .370, Carroll is a nightmare on the basepaths. He is backed by switch-hitting slugger Ketel Marte (.843 OPS) and power threat Christian Walker (33 HR).

In 2023, the D-backs took four of six head-to-head games versus Milwaukee -- Arizona managed to win two of three contests in both cities this season. Simply, that will at least inject confidence into a young Diamondback side. But will it be enough to advance?

Final note: Arizona began the year with +490 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to qualify for the 2023 MLB postseason.

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