MLB Betting Picks, Player Props, and DFS Plays for Monday 10/9/23
Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Phillies +1.5 (-162)
The Philadelphia Phillies are straight rolling. After sweeping the Miami Marlins in the NL Wild Card Series, they beat the then-World Series favorite Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the NLDS.
Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies tonight, and despite the fact that he is facing the best offense in baseball, I like his chances to deliver a solid outing.
Wheeler has historically been good in the playoffs, posting a 2.55 ERA through seven playoff starts, including 41 strikeouts in 42.1 innings pitched.
He’s also seen fairly sizable improvements in his performance as of late. At the All-Star break, Wheeler clocked in with a 4.05 ERA, but he delivered a 3.08 ERA in the second half of play.
His 3.16 ERA on the road, in opposition to his 4.13 ERA at home, only enhances his outlook for tonight.
Further, he allows a mere .194 batting average against right-handed batters (second only to heavy Cy-Young favorite Blake Snell). Six out of nine Braves in Atlanta's likely lineup are righties, including some of the more intimidating hitters, such as Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna.
In three starts against Atlanta this season, Wheeler's record is 2-1 (the loss came at the hands of a 7-6 score in extra innings).
Max Fried is on the bump for the Braves, and I would be remiss if I failed to mention that he is very, very good. His 2.55 ERA is lethal, and though it should be noted that he pitched only 77.2 innings this season, a stellar ERA is nothing new for him, as he ended last season with a 2.48 ERA.
Fried's numbers are typically not to be messed with -- but there are a few reasons why I think he could be more susceptible to rough spots today than Wheeler.
Though a home game usually constitutes an advantage for the starting pitcher, this is not the case for Fried. This season, he posted a 1.71 ERA on the road and a 3.86 ERA at home.
In 61 career innings pitched in the playoffs, Fried has allowed a 4.43 ERA. This includes a particularly brutal postseason start against this same Philadelphia team last season, where Fried gave up six runs (four earned runs) in 3.1 innings.
On top of that, Fried has allowed a .318 batting average to the Phillies' projected starting lineup -- and though career averages can be deceiving, Fried has been so good in his career that his documented struggles against this team could stand tonight.
Also, the Phillies have a slightly better bullpen than the Braves -- the Phils' relief arms boast a 3.56 ERA (sixth), while the Braves' relievers hold a 3.81 ERA (10th).
Given that the Braves have been, more or less, the best team in baseball all season and are at risk of going down 0-2 on the series, I'm not quite ready to take the Phillies on the moneyline, but I think the Phillies will keep this game close.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
First 5 Innings Total Runs Over 4.5 (+110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks came out hot in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers -- they eviscerated Clayton Kershaw, tapping him with six earned runs in the first inning, en route to an 11-2 victory.
Zac Gallen is on the bump for Arizona today, while Bobby Miller is taking the mound for Los Angeles. We can’t rely on either starting pitcher to have a career-worst outing akin to Kershaw’s, but I do think these teams are in line to produce some early runs.
There’s no denying that Gallen has been great for the D’Backs. This season, he posted a 3.47 ERA and 26.0% strikeout rate (13th in MLB) and was named the starting pitcher for the NL All-Star team.
However, his numbers took a hit in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Gallen has allowed a 4.03 ERA and given up more power than usual, including 1.28 home runs per nine innings (0.68 HR/9 in first half), a .318 wOBA (.266 wOBA in first half), and a 45.4% hard-hit rate (35.9% in first half).
He’s faced the Dodgers twice this season, and neither outcome was ideal. He pitched for 4.2 innings and allowed five earned runs in the season-opener against LA, and he faced similar struggles at the end of August, going 5.1 innings and surrendering six earned runs (including four home runs).
This leaves Gallen with a 9.90 ERA against the Dodgers on the year, and though a two-game sample size doesn't amount to much, it’s at least somewhat encouraging for the over that he has a history of struggling against this lineup.
Miller has seen a different trend than Gallen. After putting up a 4.50 ERA in the first half of the season, he had a dominant second half, posting a 3.36 ERA.
However, there are a couple of reasons why he could be primed to ride the struggle bus tonight -- at least as far as the first five innings over is concerned.
Miller is a rookie who has yet to pitch in a playoff game. By no means does that mean Miller is doomed today, but it could lead to some shakiness.
Further, Miller has the misfortune of going up against some very hot bats -- Arizona has knocked in a whopping 30 runs over their last four games and has yet to show any signs of stopping.
This season, the Dodgers averaged 3.02 runs in the first five innings, while the Diamondbacks averaged 2.52 runs in the split. The Dodgers allowed an average of 2.63 runs in the first five innings, and the Diamondbacks permitted an average of 2.71 runs in the first five. The over 4.5 runs through five innings would hit with each combination of these averages.
These two teams have played each other 14 times this season (including Game 1) and scored five-plus runs through five innings in nine of the matchups. Despite the fact that Gallen and Miller are capable of delivering solid outings, I think the value on the +110 odds for this over is too good to ignore.
NLDS Game 2 Player Props
Nick Castellanos To Record 2+ Bases (+160)
Nick Castellanos hammers the ball against left-handed pitchers. His splits against southpaws this year include a .324 batting average, .561 slugging percentage, 37.2% hard-hit rate, 40.3% fly-ball rate and 148 wRC+.
These numbers have increased in his last 70 plate appearances opposite lefties, mashing for a .354 batting average, .692 slugging percentage, 41.2% hard-hit rate, 45.1% fly-ball rate, and 184 wRC+ in that span.
Though Castellanos’ splits versus southpaws are enough for me to like this prop, it’s worth mentioning that in 13 at-bats versus Fried, he has raked in eight hits, including one double and one home run.
Batter-versus-pitcher stats aren't a great barometer, though, and I place significantly more weight on Castellanos' splits as a whole -- but it is nice to know that his historical dominance against lefties does not stop at Fried.
With Castellanos at +160 odds to record two-plus bases, I think the market is gravely undervaluing Castellanos' potential tonight.
Bobby Miller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-156)
An opposing starting pitcher has failed to strike out six-plus Arizona batters in each of the last 17 games, and I don’t foresee that trend stopping tonight with Miller on the mound for the Dodgers.
Miller is a solid pitcher capable of delivering a good outing tonight, but the Arizona offense has been too hot and too punchout-resistant for him to have a great shot at six Ks.
In addition to the difficult matchup, there is also trouble regarding Miller's strikeout abilities, at least at this prop line. Though he comes into the night with a 23.6% strikeout rate (23rd in MLB), he has punched out six or more batters in just 9 of his 22 starts.
Arizona has been a really tough team to strike out all year, ending the regular season with a 20.4% strikeout rate, the fourth-lowest.
While the -156 price on this under isn't super fun, I think that's the side to be on.
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Plays
Pitching Breakdown
Zack Wheeler ($9,600) -- Despite being the second-lowest salaried option for tonight's slate, Zack Wheeler is a quality pitching play for Monday's fantasy contests.
Out of the four starting pitchers on the bump, Wheeler leads the pack with a 26.9% strikeout rate (11th in MLB).
Zac Gallen ($9,900) trails close behind him in this regard, posting a 26.0% strikeout percentage (13th), but his historic struggles against the Dodgers lineup could make him too risky of a play.
Bobby Miller ($8,800) is up against a red-hot Diamondbacks team and fails to hold a ton of punchout upside. Given that the Dodgers really need to win tonight, Miller could see a short leash if things get stodgy, so I'm avoiding him altogether.
Max Fried ($10,200) has solid strikeout upside and posts the best ERA of the group, but Wheeler offers a higher fantasy ceiling.
Yes, the matchup with Alanta is really tough, but Wheeler scored a season-best 70 FanDuel points against the Braves earlier this year. In three starts against Atlanta this season, he has averaged 39.6 FanDuel points.
The breakdown of these scores for Wheeler is 70, 9, and 40 FanDuel points -- so while the ceiling is certainly there, it's possible that the Braves rough him up. However, when it comes to playoff baseball, the floor is awful for just about every pitcher, so I like Wheeler's upside the most tonight.
Hitting Breakdown
In terms of stacks, the Los Angeles Dodgers could be a good move tonight.
Beyond the fact that Gallen gave up 11 earned runs in 9 innings against them this season, this Dodgers team is never a bad option to stack -- Los Angeles' 249 home runs (second-most) and 906 runs (second-most) on the season proves just this.
Ideal Dodger targets would likely be lefties, given their ability to leverage Gallen's .302 wOBA, 1.26 home runs per nine innings, and 3.80 FIP to batters with this handedness.
Top lefty options with good righty splits include Freddie Freeman (.403 wOBA vs. RHP, 158 wRC+), Max Muncy (.371 wOBA, 136 wRC+), and Jason Heyward (.351 wOBA, 123 wRC+).
Mookie Betts (.405 wOBA vs. RHP, 158 wRC+) and James Outman (.359 wOBA, 128 wRC+) are viable secondary options if targeting this stack.
The Dodgers' offense could be primed to make a major bounceback tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.