3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 5/14/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Over 3.5 Runs (-106)

The Toronto Blue Jays have logged 7.6 runs per game over the last five, yet their run total sits at only 3.5 for tonight. The Tampa Bay Rays aren't putting a dominant starter on the mound, either, as Ryan Pepiot has a 3.86 ERA, 4.43 xERA, 4.29 SIERA, and 4.34 xFIP.

Totaling six home runs over the last two games has been a huge lift to Toronto's run totals. Pepiot is currently in the 33rd percentile of barrel rate allowed and 48th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed. He also has an alarming 1.62 HR/9 -- which was at 1.18 a season ago. The Blue Jays continuing to go yard looks likely, and they already boast MLB's 10th-highest batting average paired with the 10th-most hits per contest.

Pepiot's most-used pitches are led by a four-seam fastball (41.2%), changeup (27.3%), and slider (20.7%). Toronto is in the top 13 of runs above average against fastballs and changeups.

Considering the matchup and the Blue Jays' hot streak, they should be able to plate four-plus runs.

Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds

Reds -1.5 (-110)

The Cincinnati Reds' starting rotation hasn't had much working for it -- especially with ace Hunter Greene landing on the injured list. Nick Lodolo is one of the few remaining bright spots of a shaky rotation. With Cincy losing 8 of the last 10, will Lodolo guide the Reds to a much-needed win against the Chicago White Sox?

Lodolo's 3.68 xERA is a strong number. Plus, this is an excellent individual matchup for Lodolo. The White Sox have the lowest wOBA in baseball (.278) along with the third-fewest runs scored. Against left-handed hurlers, Chicago's wOBA drops even further to .260. The White Sox are also among the 10th-fewest runs above average against four-seam fastballs, curveballs, and sinkers -- which make up Lodolo's most-used pitches.

Looking at the Sox's pitching situation, Davis Martin has a 6.12 xERA, 4.49 SIERA, and 4.45 xFIP. Despite sitting in the top half of wOBA and runs scored, the Redlegs have the 10th-lowest batting average and 12th-fewest hits per game. Cincy has a good shot of improving its numbers against Martin as the Reds are in the top nine of runs above average against fastballs and changeups -- which are Martin's most-used pitches.

Overall, I love this matchup for the Reds -- a common theme for facing teams facing the White Sox.

Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers

Athletics Over 3.5 Runs (+120)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take the mound tonight with his impressive 2.72 SIERA and 2.51 xFIP, causing the Athletics' run total to drop to 3.5 with +120 odds on the over. However, the A's have plenty of impressive hitting numbers -- including the third-highest batting average and most hits per contest.

Yamamoto comes off a start in which he ceded six hits and five earned runs. Meanwhile, the Athletics have the seventh-most home runs per game and fifth-highest home run rate. After launching five to the stands on Tuesday, the A's are licking their chops once again.

The Athletics even carry the seventh-most runs above average against fastballs, and Yamamoto's four-seam fastball leads the way for him with a 36.2% usage rate. The Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen has been underwhelming, too, ranking 16th in ERA.

While Yamamoto's turn in the rotation is usually a sign to back unders, that's not the case against the A's. After the Athletics totaled 11 runs in two of the last three, they can score at least four today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.