MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 8/30/23: Trusting Young Arms in Los Angeles

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 9.5 (-110)

We'll start out west today where I'm putting my faith in a pair of young rookie pitchers to keep the total under 9.0 runs.

For the Arizona Diamondbacks, Brandon Pfaadt makes his eighth start since returning to the majors. Pfaadt struggled when he was initially called up in May, but he's been rock-solid in his second stint. Over his last seven outings, the righty owns a 3.48 ERA and 4.11 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).

He's maintained 23.5% strikeout and 28.9% called+swinging strike (CSW%) rates over that span -- numbers directly correlated with an uptick in sweeper usage. On his sweeper, Pfaadt has racked up a 31.5% whiff rate and held opponents to a .140 average. With a Run Value of 7 per Baseball Savant, the sweeper is far and away his best pitch.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been one of the best lineups in the league against righties this season, but Pfaadt held his own against them earlier this month. He lasted just 4.2 innings but limited LA to 4 runs on 6 hits while striking out 5.

The Dodgers put up 16 runs across the first two games of the series, but I like what I've seen from Pfaadt since his return. I'm not expecting Pfaadt to one-hit the Dodgers like he did to the San Diego Padres two starts ago, but given how poorly Arizona's offense has played lately, all we need is an average start to keep the under in play.

What we're really banking on is a quality first start of the season from Ryan Pepiot. LA's No. 10 overall prospect, Pepiot started seven games for the Dodgers last year and earned a spot in the Dodgers rotation before an oblique injury sidelined him for the majority of this season. Now healthy, Pepiot has appeared in two games in a long-relief role, giving up just two runs in nine innings of work and striking out 11.

Pepiot has a chance to shine in his first start of the season. Arizona's offense has fallen off a cliff this month, averaging 4.08 runs per game, racking up a bottom-10 wOBA (.309) overall, and registering the sixth-lowest ISO (.149) against righties in their last 26 games.

With two undervalued pitchers on the bump, I love the under here in what should be a hard-fought series finale between the division rivals.

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies

Braves -1.5 F5 (+100)

The Atlanta Braves just barely squeezed this first-five run line out yesterday in a game where they miraculously managed just three runs. That came a day after scoring 14 in their series opener at Coors Field, and I'm anticipating a return to offensive dominance tonight.

That's largely thanks to the Colorado Rockies' starter, Kyle Freeland. Freeland has been incredibly hitter-friendly this season, sporting a 5.18 SIERA and a measly 14.7% strikeout rate. With 41.0% flyball and 13.4% HR/FB rates, Freeland could be in a lot of trouble against a Braves offense that has shredded lefties this season.

In that split, Atlanta leads the league in wOBA (.379), ISO (.238) and HR/FB rate (20.5%). Averaging the most runs per game since the All-Star break (6.29), the Braves should face little resistance against a pitcher who has allowed three-plus runs in 10 of his last 11 outings.

That's what makes the first-five-inning run line so enticing. In addition to the enhanced juice we get (+100 compared to -166 for the game), we also have to worry about only the two starters. I don't have any doubts about Atlanta's ability to put up runs on Freeland, so we just need Darius Vines to lock down the Rockies.

The righty will be making his MLB debut after a successful Triple-A campaign where he held a 2.70 ERA and struck out 46 in 43.1 innings of work. Atlanta's No. 10 overall prospect doesn't feature incredible stuff, but he's gradually moved up every level of Atlanta's minor league system.

Despite debuting at Coors Field, Vines is in a nice spot against a Rockies team that has struggled against righties over the second half. Since the All-Star break, Colorado ranks 22nd in wOBA (.306) while striking out at the third-highest rate (28.0%) and posting the lowest wRC+ (75) against right-handed pitchers.

I like Vines to have a solid debut tonight and for Atlanta's offense to start hot, helping the Braves secure at least a two-run lead through five innings.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals

Under 9.0 (-104)

The two pitchers in tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates-Kansas City Royals matchup may be relatively unknown names, but they've both pitched well enough this season that I have no issues backing the under in a clash between two feeble offenses.

Righty Andre Jackson toes the rubber for the visiting Pirates tonight, bringing with him a 4.91 ERA -- a clip that looks unimpressive at first glance but is not indicative of his performance this season. Jackson has gotten pretty unlucky in 2023, which is indicated by his strong 3.73 SIERA. He possesses solid strikeout stuff (23.1% K rate and 28.2% CSW%) and has allowed just four runs in his last two starts.

He's no ace, but Jackson should have moderate success against a Royals lineup that has looked better over the second half but still has the fourth-lowest wOBA (.296) and eighth-lowest ISO (.151) against righties. Even with their improved play, Kansas City has averaged just 4.7 runs per game this month.

On the opposite side, Angel Zerpa will make just his third start of the season, although he's appeared in five games as a reliever. His 7.27 ERA is frightening at face value, but the 23-year-old southpaw's .327 BABIP has inflated his counting stats. His 4.29 SIERA is a much better indication of his skill. Zerpa excels at forcing ground balls, doing so at a 48.3% clip after posting a 51.4% groundball rate last season.

He'll have the added benefit of facing a Pirates lineup that hasn't done much of anything against lefties over the second half. Since the All-Start break, Pittsburgh ranks 28th in wOBA (.281) in the split as well as 29th in ISO (.109) while striking out at a 24.0% clip.

After these two teams combined for five runs in the opener and just nine runs last night, I don't see either offense getting going tonight in a series finale between two of the worst teams in baseball.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.