MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday 8/29/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our MLB projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best MLB Player Props Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Record An RBI (+125)

The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays will wrap up a four-game series this evening. Kutter Crawford, the hurler who has given up the most home runs (28) in MLB, will be on the bump for Boston.

Crawford surrenders a 46.6% fly-ball rate and 1.39 home runs per nine innings to right-handed batters. He also walks this handedness at just a 6.1% rate, usually leaving them in a position to receive a proper at-bat. This seems like a great spot for the right-handed Vladimir Guerrero Jr..

Guerrero has managed a 14.8% barrel rate, 53.4% hard-hit rate, .320 ISO, and 219 wRC+ across the last 30 days of play. He mashes righties with a .322 BA, .544 SLG, and .222 ISO. He draws a massive 17.6% walk rate opposite lefties but just an 8.9% rate against righties.

Batting third, Vladdy has notched a team-leading 87 RBIs through 133 games. That's good for the 13th-most RBIs in baseball. Per MLB Park Factors, Fenway Park has long been kind to right-handed bats, and Guerrero has historically been a monster at the stadium. I'll back him to knock in a run and will also consider his friendly +520 home run odds, too.

Anthony Santander To Hit a Home Run (+440)

Bobby Miller hit the IL for right shoulder inflammation in early April and has made just six starts since.

On the season, he's coughed up a .301 BA, 44.2% fly-ball rate, and 2.55 home runs per nine innings. Miller has tossed only 39 2/3 innings this season, so we don't have a particularly stable sample.

However, he has surrendered a total of 4 home runs and 15 earned runs in just his last two starts and has given up at least one long ball in all eight starts since his 2024 debut. He's a guy we want to exploit tonight, especially since the big, bad Baltimore Orioles are in town (201 home runs; second-most in MLB).

We aren't short on intriguing home run plays for this game, but I think Anthony Santander and his +440 odds take the cake.

Santander has belted 38 home runs (third-most in MLB) this season. He's hit at least one home run in 27.3% of games played, yet these +440 odds imply only an 18.5% probability.

The odds here are especially curious given the matchup against Miller. The switch-hitting Santander generates a .280 ISO and 59.2% fly-ball rate (highest in MLB) against right-handers. As mentioned, Miller allows lefties to produce a 44.2% fly-ball rate and has mastered the head turn to see these fly balls soar over the fence.

I love Santander in this spot and am surprised by these +440 odds.

Hunter Brown Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102)

Let's turn to the strikeout prop market. Hunter Brown enters the night with a 3.72 ERA, 3.39 xERA, 3.51 xFIP, and 3.77 SIERA. He's been pretty awesome for the Houston Astros and has brought the flash, too, securing a 25.5% strikeout rate and punching out 9.68 batters per nine innings.

Brown has exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in three straight starts. On the season, he has collected more than 5.5 strikeouts in 15 out of 26 appearances (57.7% of contests) and has notched at least 5 Ks in 80.7% of his outings. These +102 odds imply just a 49.5% probability.

Now, Brown will take on the Kansas City Royals, a team that strikes out at the second-lowest rate (18.3% K%) in the majors -- which is why over 5.5 is plus-money.

However, Kansas City's offense has looked a lot different on the road. At home, they rank second in BA, third in SLG, seventh in wOBA, and strike out at a mere 17.0% rate (lowest). But on the road, the Royals rank 12th in BA, 11th in SLG, and 16th in wOBA. They still strike out at a measly 19.6% rate in this split, but KC being a worse offense overall away from home means that Brown could be primed to go longer in this game, giving him more chances to rack up punchouts.

FanDuel Research's MLB projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- forecast Brown to record 6.58 Ks in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.