MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Friday 8/30/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our MLB projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best MLB Player Props Today

Pablo Lopez to Record 7+ Strikeouts (+144)

After recording seven strikeouts in three consecutive outings, Pablo Lopez saw his production drop with only 3.3 Ks per start from August 6th to August 18th. The Minnesota Twins' hurler got back on the right page with nine strikeouts in his most recent outing.

We have good reason to believe Lopez can keep this up against the Toronto Blue Jays. They have seen their strikeout percentage (K%) rise from 20.2% to 21.5% over the last 30 days. The Jays have the sixth-highest chase percentage over the last 30 days, as well, which plays right into Lopez's hands as he's in the 93rd percentile of the category -- per Savant.

Pitch usage is another piece of evidence, for the Toronto is in the bottom half of runs above average against four-seam fastballs and changeups over the last 30 days. These make up two of Lopez's three most-used tools.

FanDuel Research's daily projections have Lopez with the second-highest median K projection for today's slate. If the 7.14 projections rings true, this carries a 57.1% implied probability for seven strikeouts (or -133 odds). Lopez is -144 to go over 5.5 strikeouts; reaching seven Ks is a much more enticing bet at +144 -- a 41.0% implied probability. The stats check out and projections are pointing to great value in the +144 line.

J.D. Martinez to Record an RBI (+125)

Following a rough stretch, the New York Mets' J.D. Martinez has 6 hits over his previous 16 at-bats (.375 batting average). This has directly led to a pair of RBIs over his last four games.

Martinez's hot streak should keep up tonight against the Chicago White Sox. Jonathan Cannon will be on the mound for Chicago. Opponents are batting .279 over Cannon's last six starts, and he's posted xFIPs of over 5.0 in five of the six outings. Cannon's most-used pitch is a sinker, and Martinez is raking with a .359 batting average when facing this pitch.

Martinez is usually not far behind Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso in the batting order. Nimmo is hitting .417 over his last three games, and Alonso has a hit in four of his previous five contests. Alonso is also hitting .310 against sinkers, causing more worry for Cannon.

Paired with Martinez's recent production, there's a good chance that runners will be on base thanks to Nimmo and Alonso. Martinez is carrying a median projection of 1.05 RBIs, which has a 65.0% implied probability for recording an RBI. Compare that to the +125 odds to record an RBI holding a 44.4% implied probability; Martinez knocking in another run is too good to pass up.

Tyler Fitzgerald to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

Tyler Fitzgerald has enjoyed one heck of a rookie season, carrying a slash line of .296/.352/.553. He's produced two total bases in two of his last five games. Will the rookie infielder produce another two-base night against the Miami Marlins?

He gets to face a shaky pitcher in Adam Oller. He's heavily leaned on a four-seam fastball through two starts with a 62.7% usage rate. Fitzgerald is batting .306 when seeing fastballs this season. Oller has posted 4.79 and 8.77 xFIPs over the two starts, as well.

Oller has struggled with hard contact so far as he's on pace to finish in the bottom 25% in hard-hit percentage. The Marlins' starter also carries a concerning 60.0% fly-ball percentage. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald has seen his fly-ball rate jump to 47.9% over the last 30 days -- compared to his season average of 42.8. He also has a solid 21.5% home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) this season.

One homer would solve this bet, and Fitzgerald is touting the highest median home run projection at 0.31 for this matchup.

The +100 odds to record two bases has a 50.0% implied probability, yet Fitzgerald's median projection of 2.59 bases holds a 73.1% implied probability for two bases.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.