MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Monday 9/2/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Twins at Rays

Twins' Moneyline (-108)

Although this is a revenge game for Zack Littell, it's fair to be a bit skeptical of him in his first start off the IL. I think that gives us wiggle room to back the Minnesota Twins to win.

Littell hit the shelf in mid-August with shoulder fatigue. He didn't make a rehab start before rejoining the rotation, making it hard to gauge where he's at physically.

On the other side, Simeon Woods Richardson has put together a fantastic rookie campaign, posting a 3.85 ERA in 23 starts. He has specifically excelled at suppressing hard contact, letting up just a 36.3% hard-hit rate, helping keep his expected ERA low at 4.06.

When you combine Woods Richardson's contact suppression with questions around Littell's health, my model has the Twins' win odds at 53.3%. With their implied odds at just 51.9%, we've got enough of an edge to back the road team.

Mariners at Athletics

Osvaldo Bido Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)

Ever since Osvaldo Bido returned to the Oakland Athletics' rotation, he has been a madman. It may open the door for us to take the over on his strikeout prop as he faces the Seattle Mariners.

It's a small sample, but in his seven starts of this most recent stint, Bido holds a 3.88 SIERA with a 26.8% strikeout rate. He's doing that while holding opponents to just a 26.9% hard-hit rate. Again, these are all small samples, but those are numbers that do stabilize relatively quickly, so it's at least noteworthy.

It seems like the big difference is Bido's cutting back on his sinker. He has thrown that just 8.4% of the time, down from 16.7% across all outings since the start of last year. This has allowed him to throw more changeups (up to 16.5% from 12.2%), a pitch that generates a 37.3% whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant.

Bido has topped 5.5 strikeouts in 5 of these 7 starts and now faces a Mariners team with a 27.1% strikeout rate on its active roster against righties. I'm comfortable buying into Bido's gains and taking the over as a result.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+340)

The perception of Juan Soto is that his power binge this year is a result of Yankee Stadium.

That's true to an extent. But even if you look at just his numbers on the road, he seems like a value to go deep tonight in Arlington.

For the season, Soto has played 68 games on the road. He has hit a homer in 16 of those (19 total homers), a rate of 23.5%. His implied odds to go deep at +340 are 22.7%, so he has actually accomplished this on the road at a higher rate than the market's current price.

Soto's form is -- unsurprisingly -- phenomenal with a 22.5% barrel rate the past 30 days, leading to 10 home runs, just one less than Aaron Judge in that span.

Soto and the New York Yankees are facing Jack Leiter, who has let up a fly-ball rate higher than 40% in both Triple-A and the majors this year. This allows us to buy into Soto's stellar season, even with the Yankees as the visiting team.

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Jackson Merrill has been hitting too well recently to have dinger odds this long.

Over the past 30 days, Merrill has a 19.3% barrel rate with a 56.3% fly-ball rate. Those are deity-tier numbers, and he has gone deep eight times in this span.

Ty Madden seems likely to get the ball for the opposing Detroit Tigers. Madden pitched well in his debut, but across 18 Triple-A starts, he let up a 41.9% hard-hit rate.

Petco Park is a tough place for lefties to go deep, but Merrill still has a .229 ISO at home against righties across 178 plate appearances. Given how well he has struck it recently, I think we have the green light to bet him at this number.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets guaranteed after your first bet of $5+ is placed! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which MLB bets stand out to you on Labor Day? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.