MLB Best Bets for Monday 7/1/24

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Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Nationals Over 3.5 Runs (-138)

After getting shut out yesterday, the Washington Nationals couldn't ask for a better target to face to turn things around.

The opposing New York Mets are sending David Peterson to the bump, and Peterson's one-run outing in last week's Subway Series -- and 3.67 ERA -- might have led bettors to forget his dismal season overall. The lefty is rocking an abysmal 6.12 xERA, .294 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 45.2% hard-hit rate allowed.

Peterson has outrun his peripherals to start the year, including against these Nats on June 4th. He allowed just two runs in 6.2 innings, but Washington left 8 men on base and went 3-for-10 with runners in scoring position. You can only play hot potato for so long.

This bet isn't without drama since the Nats' offense struggles against most lefties in general. They posted just a 77 wRC+ against them in June, but they've also been a victim of the third-worst BABIP versus lefties in the same period (.258). The recent addition of Harold Ramirez -- and his career .799 OPS against southpaws -- could help them turn it around.

numberFire (4.30), DRatings (4.22), and Massey Ratings (4.49) all have a projected total a good bit over four for Washington, and this juice that they can reach that mark isn't extreme.

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies

Under 6.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-125)

I feel like a buzzkill when there are only three games on Monday, and this Milwaukee Brewers-Colorado Rockies clash is the one most sought after for props given its 11.5-run total.

Fear not, supporters of offense. Milwaukee and Colorado both had bottom-10 bullpens (by xFIP) in June, so this game's total could easily be in doubt late. I'm targeting the under in the first five innings given the splits of these two pitchers.

The visiting Brewers will draw Austin Gomber, who saw the wheels fall off in June. However, he faced four of the month's top-11 offenses against left-handed pitching, so his skill-interactive SIERA (4.69) still isn't extremely poor. Gomber had a sub 4.00 ERA in both April and May against easier foes; I wouldn't be surprised if he starts off July in a better place.

The first reason is that Milwaukee is a few stops below MLB's top 11. They posted just a .617 OPS against them last month -- fifth-worst in MLB. That'll only get worse if Joey Ortiz sits again with a neck issue, per Ortiz's 126 wRC+ against left-handers this year.

On the other side, the Brewers send Bryse Wilson to the bump after an opener, and Wilson has benefitted from this shift. He's ceded fewer than three runs in 8 of his last 10 appearances, leading to a skill-interactive ERA (4.37 SIERA) that isn't too shabby.

Colorado's struggles with right-handed pitching have plagued them all season, including a 70 wRC+ last month (fourth-worst in MLB). They also had a top-five strikeout rate (25.6%), and Coors only works if the ball is in play.

Once these starters depart, both teams perform much better against the other handedness of a pitcher. Anything is on the table at that point, but relative to each's split, seven markers feels too rich in the first five for these poor offenses.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.