Michigan-Iowa: Spread, Total, Breakdown and Best Bet for Big Ten Championship Game

Of all football conference championships this weekend, the upcoming Big Ten title game is likely the bid folks are talking about least.

Heading to Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Michigan Wolverines are set for a conference title match that isn't expected to be very close. Additionally, points are projected to be at a premium. This Saturday night, I'd anticipate an old-school, Midwestern-style clash in the Big Ten Championship Game. Do not be surprised if we see 70 combined rushing attempts.

Notably, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh will be making his return to the sidelines after serving his second suspension of 2023; know that the undefeated Wolverines will be charged up by that. For Iowa, they enter on a four-game winning streak, not allowing more than 13 points in any contest through the heater.

With kickoff in Indy swiftly approaching, let's dive into the odds and lines for the Big Ten championship, keeping the emphasis on the most valuable of the traditional betting markets.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Big Ten Championship Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline and Total

Kickoff: Saturday (Dec. 2), 8 p.m. ET on FOX

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Spread: Michigan -21.5

Moneyline:

• Iowa +1400
• Michigan: -4000

Total: 34.5 (-114/-106)

Michigan vs. Iowa Analysis

For U-M, they will almost certainly make the College Football Playoff even if they manage to lose to the Hawkeyes this weekend. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Michigan (-10000) yields the shortest odds to qualify for the CFP. Regardless, the Wolverines would do well to not overlook Iowa.

In 2023, the 10-2 Hawkeyes have stayed true to their brand under head coach Kirk Ferentz, who is in his 25th season at the post. Still running the stingiest 4-3 in the country, Iowa has suffocated opponents into just 12.2 PPG this year, the fourth-best clip in FBS.

Being on opposite ends of the Big Ten, the Hawkeyes and Wolverines did not meet this regular season, but they did face off in 2022. In that game, Michigan utilized two ground scores along with a stout defensive effort -- allowing only 35 rushing yards to UI -- in the 24-16 win.

At 12-0, U-M appears to have their most talented team of the millennium. After last week's momentous win in "The Game," Michigan has now defeated the archrival Ohio State Buckeyes in three straight years for the first time since the mid-90s. Still, does Iowa have any shot at matching up?

When looking at numberFire's power rankings, the Wolverines (30.23) are seen as the second-best team in FBS. As for the challenger Hawkeyes (6.17), they don't show up until 44th overall. Comparatively, the defenses on hand are similarly productive (10.2 PPG allowed by U-M, 12.2 from Iowa), but Michigan has more explosive players on offense.

Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy was on a Heisman pace for a solid portion of 2023, as the junior shows a 90.8 QBR in 12 starts. He has had the security of a massive offensive line along with a dynamic running game a la Blake Corum, a scrappy tailback who leads the nation with 22 scores this year. On the outside, senior receiver Roman Wilson paces the team with 16.2 yards per reception.

Iowa's offense does not offer the same dynamic abilities, as no single player has reached 1,000 yards -- passing, rushing or receiving -- through their dozen games this year. Hawkeyes starting quarterback Deacon Hill has a five-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he averages just 18.2 pass attempts per game. Without something up their sleeves, I'm not sure how often Iowa will be able to manage points versus Michigan.

The real matchup to watch will be when the Wolverine offense goes at Iowa's defense. We highlighted Michigan's playmakers, but the Hawkeyes have a few heat-seeking missiles on D. Resembling a young Ray Lewis, rangy mikebacker Jay Higgins is second in FBS with 141 tackles. In the defensive backfield, safety Sebastian Castro leads the team with three picks to go with seven passes defended.

Of course, U-M has ballers in all three levels of their defense. Defensive end Jaylen Harrell heads the Wolverines with 5.5 sacks while defensive back Mike Sainristil has logged five interceptions (two for TD) this year. Tied together by linebacker Junior Colson (71 tackles), the unit will look to force a scoreboard doughnut in "Circle City."

Michigan vs. Iowa Best Bet

Under 34.5 (-106)

I do not think there are too many different angles to approach this contest from. As noted, Iowa's moneyline is -- by a wide margin -- the most substantial underdog (+1400) of championship weekend. The line here (Michigan -21.5) is in the neighborhood of three touchdowns, and given the potential pace of play, I want no part of a spread that large.

For the Big Ten title game, under 34.5 total points at -106 odds feels like a much more lucrative play. We have already established that the Wolverines and Hawkeyes both keep points off the board at a top-five rate, collectively allowing just 22.4 PPG in 2023. Also, Iowa and U-M each average north of 35 carries per game on offense, which naturally keeps the game clock moving.

In recent weeks, Michigan has seen offenses much more dynamic than the UI (18.0 PPG this year), such as Ohio State and the Maryland Terrapins. Transparently, no one has had any consistent success against the Maize and Blue defense in 2023. I'm confident U-M stifles the Hawkeyes, keeping the combined total under 35 points.

A final ode of confidence: unders have gone 10-2 in through Iowa's football games this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.