Lakers vs. Thunder Western Semifinals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 11

Lakers vs. Thunder Game Info

• Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena -- Los Angeles, California
• Coverage: Amazon Prime Video

The Oklahoma City Thunder bring a 3-0 lead into a decisive Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The Thunder are large, 10.5-point favorites in the contest, which will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video at 10:30 p.m. ET. The point total is set at 214.5 in the matchup.

Lakers vs. Thunder Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Lakers vs. Thunder Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (56.7%)

Lakers vs. Thunder Betting Trends

• The Thunder have put together a record of 39-42-1 against the spread this season.
• The Lakers have 45 wins against the spread in 82 games this season.
• Thunder games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under 45 times this season.
• The Lakers have gone over the point total 52.4% of the time this year (43 of 82 games with a set point total).
• Oklahoma City has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than road games. It has covered 19 times in 42 games at home, and it has covered 20 times in 40 games when playing on the road.
• The Thunder have exceeded the total in 22 of 42 home games (52.4%). They've fared better in road games, topping the total in 23 of 40 matchups (57.5%).
• Against the spread, Los Angeles has been better at home (24-16-1) than on the road (21-20-0).
• Looking at the over/under, Lakers games have finished over 23 of 41 times at home (56.1%), and 20 of 41 away (48.8%).

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists, shooting 55.3% from the field and 38.6% from downtown, with 1.7 made treys per contest.
• Chet Holmgren is averaging 17.1 points, 8.9 boards and 1.7 assists. At the other end, he averages 0.6 steals and 1.9 blocked shots (second in NBA).
• Cason Wallace's numbers on the season are 8.6 points, 3.1 boards and 2.6 assists per contest, shooting 43.2% from the floor and 35.1% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.3 made 3-pointers.
• Ajay Mitchell's numbers on the season are 13.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest, shooting 48.5% from the field and 34.7% from downtown, with an average of 1.1 made treys.
• Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 9.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists.

Lakers Leaders

• LeBron James is averaging 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists for the Lakers.
• Per game, Austin Reaves gets the Lakers 23.3 points, 4.7 boards and 5.5 assists. He also averages 1.1 steals and 0.4 blocks.
• Deandre Ayton's numbers on the season are 12.5 points, 8 boards and 0.8 assists per contest. He is draining 67.1% of his shots from the field (second in NBA).
• Jake LaRavia averages 8.2 points, 4 boards and 1.8 assists. He is making 45.9% of his shots from the field and 32.1% from beyond the arc, with 1 treys per contest.
• Rui Hachimura's numbers on the season are 11.5 points, 3.3 boards and 0.8 assists per contest. He is draining 51.4% of his shots from the field and 44.3% from beyond the arc (fifth in league), with an average of 1.7 treys.

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