Kentucky Derby Longshot Bets for Today: Darkhorse Picks for the 2026 Race

In today’s Kentucky Derby, 20 of the top three-year-olds in the world will line up in the Churchill Downs starting gate for a race unlike any other in the world of horse racing. They will go a taxing 1 ¼-mile distance for a purse of $5 million, a place in horse racing history, and to keep alive the dream of being the next Triple Crown winner. With such a big field, it’s going to be one of the best betting races of the year – especially since, with so much that all these horses have to prove, it’s a perfect place to bet long shots.

None of these horses in the Kentucky Derby has gone 1 ¼ miles yet, and many will never go that far in a race again. Horses coming from the UAE Derby (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2) have gone 1 3/16 miles, and Danon Bourbon covered that distance in an allowance race. However, other major preps like the Florida Derby (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), and Blue Grass (G1) have only gone a maximum of 1 ⅛ miles.

None of these horses has lined up in a field of 20. The closest any of them have come are Wonder Dean, Danon Bourbon, and Six Speed, all of whom have raced in fields of 16 before. None of the horses who have done all of their racing stateside have confronted a field larger than 12, and six of the horses in the main field have not seen a double-digit field size yet.

The Kentucky Derby is a perfect race for using long shots. Though there are always some favorites who run well, a long shot or two usually runs well enough to make the exotics. And sometimes, as we have seen recently with 80-1 Rich Strike in 2022 and 65-1 Country House in 2019, horses completely ignored by the public do well enough at Churchill Downs to become the Kentucky Derby winner.

As you figure out your Kentucky Derby day betting strategy, make sure to keep these three long shots in mind.

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Longshot Bets and Picks for Today's Kentucky Derby

Golden Tempo

Golden Tempo won his first two races at Fair Grounds, including the Lecomte (G3) in just his second career start, but slipped under the radar after running third in his next two preps, the Risen Star (G2) and the Louisiana Derby (G1). But, his Louisiana Derby was a move forward in terms of speed figures, and if he can take another step forward at Churchill Downs, he could spoil a lot of exotic tickets. After all, both of the horses he just missed catching are going to be well forward of him in the Kentucky Derby, and the pace stands to be even more demanding.

The extra distance also appeals for Golden Tempo. He is sired by Curlin – a top-class sire who is the best stamina influence of any of the sires of horses in the Kentucky Derby this year, based on his 7.7-furlong average winning distance. His dam side is nothing to sneeze at, either. His dam Carrumba was a Grade 3 winner at 1 ⅛ miles. She is by Bernardini, who won the Preakness, Travers (G1), and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at classic distances and emerged into an excellent stamina influence at stud.

With his running style and pedigree, Golden Tempo has reasons to take a step forward in the Kentucky Derby. If he does, this Cherie DeVaux trainee could spoil exotic tickets at a huge price.

Wonder Dean

Wonder Dean will face the toughest company of his career in the Kentucky Derby, but he is going the right way. His tactical speed should play well at Churchill Downs, and he should be able to track off of a hotly contested pace – and if any track bias begins to show, that it’s not a great day for closers, he is likely going to be ahead of those really late runners.

In terms of distance, Wonder Dean may be the best prepared to go 1 ¼ miles. After all, trainer Daisuke Takayanaga has really built a bottom with him. He debuted at 1 ⅛ miles on turf, ran 1 ⅛ miles on dirt three times in Japan, and though the mile of the Saudi Derby (G3) was too short for him, he thrived stretching out to 1 3/16 miles for the UAE Derby (G2). That trajectory of thriving with distance matches up with his pedigree on paper: sire Dee Majesty (7.7-furlong average winning distance) and damsire Wonder Acute (8.3-furlong average winning distance) are well-proven sources of stamina, and his dam Wonder Siang Praw won going as long as 1 ⅛ miles.

Wonder Dean’s connections make him particularly interesting. Neither his trainer nor his jockey are new to the Run for the Roses, and they both have had some success. Trainer Daisuke Takayanagi trained 2024 Kentucky Derby fifth-place finisher T O Password, who was a wild card who lacked experience and finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby in just his third career race. And now, Takayanagi comes in with a horse who not only has a few more races underneath him, but also some international experience in both Saudi Arabia and Dubai before getting to the Derby. And, Takayanagi has brought Ryusei Sakai to ride. Sakai takes the reins with Wonder Dean for the first time – but he was third in the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Forever Young, meaning he has already done one very good ride going 1 ¼ miles at Churchill Downs.

Incredibolt

Incredibolt hasn’t been the most consistent horse on the Kentucky Derby trail, but when he’s good, he’s good. He comes into the Kentucky Derby out of a four-length rout in the Virginia Derby, where he didn’t face the strongest company, but he certainly beat them the right way, tracking the pace before taking complete command in the lane. For a horse by confirmed miler Bolt d’Oro, it was a nice bit of proof that he could thrive going longer than his sire did.

And, where has Incredibolt run his other two good races? Over the Churchill Downs surface, of course. The Riley Mott trainee broke his maiden in track-and-pounce fashion over the one-turn mile in September, and then stretched out nicely to win the Street Sense (G3) in October. What’s particularly interesting about the Street Sense is that he sat further off the pace than he did in his other two wins, showing a dimension of versatility that will be useful in a pace-laden Kentucky Derby. (And of course, if the track is showing a speed bias where horses can’t be far back even if the early pace gets hot? He’s versatile enough to do that, too, and jockey Jaime Torres has ridden him in both of those styles.

Incredibolt is, of course, the kind of horse you need a price on, between coming from an unproven final prep and the fact that he can be on-again, off-again. But, in such a wide-open Derby, he’ll be one of the longer shots in the field, and there’s enough upside to consider him, particularly for exotics and spread tickets.

Check out our favorite Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets.

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