Kentucky Derby Horse: Robusta Odds, History, and Predictions

The 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby is coming up at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 2. The race has been drawn, but with a week between the draw and the actual event, there are often a few last-minute changes – and a few horses on the also-eligible list ready to take spots if they open up. San Felipe (G2) runner-up Robusta needs a little luck to get into the field, as he is three-deep on the also-eligible list, but trainer Doug O’Neill never shies away from taking a shot.

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Robusta Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

The Kentucky Derby field was drawn on Saturday, April 25. Morning-line odds were also assigned at the draw ceremony. Robusta is the joint longest shot on the board at 50-1. He’ll be one of the longest shots if he draws in; though he pushed Potente to the limit in the San Felipe, he then came up flat in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and needs to prove that he can bounce back to better form. He will break from a far-outside post: post 20 if there are three scratches inside him, and one gate further in for each additional defection to his inside.

Robusta Horse Trainer and Jockey

Robusta is trained by Doug O’Neill. He is the second-stringer for the barn, which also has Pavlovian in the main field. O’Neill is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby winners’ circle: two of his eight starters have won the blanket of roses. Those include I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016. O’Neill also trained Hot Rod Charlie, the runner-up behind Mandaloun in 2021.

If Robusta draws into the main field, Emisael Jaramillo takes the call. Jaramillo is Robusta’s regular rider; he has been in the saddle for all of Robusta’s starts except for his sprint debut at Del Mar. Jaramillo has ridden in the Kentucky Derby twice: he finished 18th with Majesto in 2018 and 18th again with Grand Mo the First in 2024.

Robusta Race History

Off the board on debut after disputing the early pace in a 6 ½-furlong maiden race in November, Robusta put it together when he was united with Emisael Jaramillo and stretched out to one mile. He led at every call on January 9 at Santa Anita, capturing the victory by half a length over buzz horse Cherokee Nation. He pressed the pace and faded next out in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), but did much better in the San Felipe on March 7. In that race, he found a true stalking gear, led midstretch, and was only beaten by a head at the wire by Potente. Four weeks later, in the Santa Anita Derby, he was back on the front end and weakened badly after dueling on the lead.

Speed ratings are courtesy of Equibase.

Robusta Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

Robusta’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, is a two-time Kentucky Derby winner, so he knows what it takes to get a horse to peak on Derby day. His pedigree has plenty of upside for the stretch out: he is sired by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Accelerate, his damsire is Into Mischief (sire of three Kentucky Derby winners, and his dam is half to Suave and Worldly, both horses who had some solid form going classic or even longer distances on the dirt.

However, he needs to run a clear career best, and his tendency to get embroiled in pace battles is a huge concern. Unless horses like Six Speed and his stablemate Pavlovian are the ones who scratch in order to get him into the starting gate? Robusta is going to need to be able to tap back into that stalking style that almost won him the San Felipe, or else he’ll just be the one who turns an honest pace into a red-hot one.

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