Kentucky Derby Horse: Fulleffort Odds, History, and Predictions

Kentucky Derby 152 is coming up Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs, and the field is coming into focus. One of the most intriguing contenders is Fulleffort. The Brad Cox trainee is one of the top five point earners after a victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), but he has never raced on dirt before. A horse winning the Kentucky Derby first-time dirt isn’t unprecedented – Animal Kingdom did it in 2011 – but that is always a tough mountain to ascend, especially against the best of the best.

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Fulleffort Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

The Kentucky Derby draw happened on April 20. Fulleffort was tabbed at 20-1 on the morning line, the longest shot of the three horses from the barn of trainer Brad Cox. He will certainly be the longest shot from his stable, given that he is the only one who has yet to try dirt. Fulleffort will break from post 20, less of a hindrance for him than some horses, given his late-running style.

Fulleffort Horse Trainer and Jockey

No horse has a deeper bench of Kentucky Derby prospects in 2026 than Brad Cox: Fulleffort joins Commandment and Further Ado, the top two Derby points earners, in the starting gate. Cox has run 12 horses in the Kentucky Derby so far with one winner to show for it: Mandaloun, who won in 2021 after the disqualification of Medina Spirit. He also has two third-place finishers, Essential Quality (2021) and Angel of Empire (2023), who both rounded out the trifecta as favorites in the race.

Fulleffort will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who takes the mount after his previous rider, Irad Ortiz, Jr., committed to ride Renegade instead. Gaffalione has ridden in the Kentucky Derby seven times and hit the board with his most recent horse: Sierra Leone, who was the narrow runner-up to Mystik Dan in 2024.

Fulleffort Race History

Fulleffort started his career on the lawn, breaking his maiden third-time out in a one-mile race at Kentucky Downs in September and then winning a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland by five lengths in October. Since then, this late-runner has switched to the Tapeta at Turfway, where he was the runner-up in both the Leonatus and the John Battaglia Memorial before breaking through with a 2 ½-length score in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on March 21.

Speed ratings are courtesy of Equibase.

Fulleffort Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

Fulleffort has shown improved form in recent starts. Though he has a strong closing kick, he commenced his move a little earlier than before in the Jeff Ruby, and that was rewarded with a win. He’ll need that dimension to make an impact in the Kentucky Derby, since there is not an overwhelming amount of early speed among the qualifiers.

The surface is the biggest question looming over Fulleffort’s head. However, being by Liam’s Map out of an Awesome Again mare with plenty of dirt form through the female family, he has every right to handle it. Particularly interesting is his Union Rags half-sister Power Squeeze, who won the Alabama (G1) at 1 ¼ miles on dirt. That makes him intriguing at a price.

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