John Deere Classic: PGA Best Bets, Predictions, Past Results, and Course Info

The PGA Tour heads to a familiar venue this week: TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois.

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

John Deere Classic Info
TPC Deere Run Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 71
• Distance: 7,289 yards (average)
• Average Fairway Width: 38.2 yards (wide)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 square feet (a little small)
• Green Type: Bentgrass
• Stimpmeter: 12
• Recent Winning Scores: -28, -21, -21, -19, -21
• Recent Cut Lines: -5, -4, -3, -4, -3

TPC Deere Run Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie or Better Rate
• Proximity From 50 to 150 Yards

Accuracy wins out over distance off the tee for this week's John Deere Classic, and that's borne out in a lot of the recent winners. Davis Thompson, last year's winner, has length off the tee, but other recent winners include Sepp Straka, J.T. Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, and Michael Kim.

Fresh off of an onslaught of birdies and eagles a week ago at Detroit Golf Club, we can expect more of the same this week at TPC Deere Run. Winning scores are historically 20-under or lower, and a few shots under par are required just to play the weekend.

Wedge control will be vital this week, given the added frequency of approach shot attempts from within 150 yards.

John Deere Classic Past Results

For info on golfers with the best results at TPC Deere Run, check out our John Deere Classic golfer history rundown.

John Deere Classic Recent Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five events on the PGA Tour, including their strokes gained data.

John Deere Classic Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Jason Day

• Odds To Win John Deere Classic (+2500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+280)
• To Finish Top 20 (+140)

Over the last 50 rounds of professional golf action, nobody in this field has a higher statistical ceiling than Jason Day on a per-round basis.

With that said, his putting splits from within 15 feet are not where you'd expect them to be (he's just a 15th-percentile putter from within 15 feet on Tour this season). But he's still good on longer putts (73rd-percentile) and has a long-term history of being a great putter.

Day is also top-30 in strokes gained per shot from 50 to 150, per datagolf, over the last year among this field.

He's played here six times in his career, though just once since 2011. That was a T23 last year.

Day's ceiling has been consistently high this year, and he now is being valued as a second-tier favorite in a weaker field after netting results of T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T8 at the Masters, T23 at the U.S. Open, and T4 at the Travelers.

Denny McCarthy

• Odds To Win John Deere Classic (+2800)
• To Finish Top 10 (+320)
• To Finish Top 20 (+150)

Denny McCarthy is second only to Day in terms of round-by-round ceiling rating, and he'll be looking to parlay that into continued success at TPC Deere Run.

McCarthy has finished T6, T6, and T7 over the last three years at this accuracy-friendly setup while generally putting the lights out per usual. McCarthy is a 92nd-percentile putter from within 15 feet on Tour this season, supporting his field-best putting splits over the last 50 rounds as a whole.

McCarthy also rates out as a top-20 iron player in that span.

Bud Cauley

• Odds To Win John Deere Classic (+4000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+450)
• To Finish Top 20 (+200)

Yes, upside is something I'm seeking this week, and Bud Cauley ranks fourth in this field in high-end variance over the last 50 rounds.

He's also the third-best iron player in that span and owns average accuracy.

Cauley is an interesting putting regression candidate, as well. He's a 91st-percentile putter from within 15 feet on Tour this season but just 19th-percentile on longer putts. The math suggests he should be making some more putts eventually.

He was T61 here last year, his first start since 2019 at TPC Deere Run. Prior to that, he had three straight top-20 finishes.

Lucas Glover

• Odds To Win John Deere Classic (+4000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+400)
• To Finish Top 20 (+200)

Lucas Glover's putting continues to hold him back. He's lost strokes in seven of his last eight starts yet owns 43rd-percentile putting splits from within 15 feet this season. Beyond that, he's a 13th-percentile putter, suggesting that more putting luck should be on the way.

Glover owns the fourth-highest recent ceiling by strokes gained: tee to green and is still ninth in total strokes gained despite a low putting baseline. The variance in his putting is still around field-average, so getting Glover back on familiar greens is enticing.

He's played here 15 times since 2002 and won in 2021.

Matt McCarty

• Odds To Win John Deere Classic (+7500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+650)
• To Finish Top 20 (+300)

A first-timer at TPC Deere Run, Matt McCarty has a good chance to go low.

He ranks 19th in driving accuracy over the last 50 rounds and 11th in putting in that span. His distance splits are great (91st-percentile from within 15 feet), and his long-term iron play is trending up.

I prefer McCarty most as a top-20 finisher, but he's got the game to rack up birdies here.

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