3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 7/30/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Per usual, the New York Yankees aren't short on intriguing home run options for tonight. I'm most interested in backing Jazz Chisholm to get one over on Zack Littell.

Littell enters with a 3.72 ERA that is due to regress thanks to a 4.57 expected ERA. He's second in MLB in home runs allowed per nine innings (1.82). Notably, he surrenders 1.91 home runs per nine frames to lefties, ceding a 45.8% fly-ball rate and .467 SLG in the split. He strikes out (16.0%) and walks (3.6%) lefties at a combined 19.6% rate, giving me faith that Jazz can put the ball in play and hit it in the air.

Chisholm is generating a .373 ISO, .645 SLG, and a 58.1% fly-ball rate when facing righties at Yankee Stadium. He's smashing 0.44 home runs per four at-bats in this split.

Jazz is generating his highest ISO (.341) against the slider, which happens to be the main pitch in Littell's bag (638 pitches).

With Giancarlo Stanton carrying just +215 home run odds, my favorite way to get exposure to this matchup is backing Jazz to go long.

Kyle Stowers to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Kyle Stowers is one of the strongest power hitters in baseball right now. Across the past 30 days, he's raking to the tune of a 22.6% barrel rate (fourth-highest in MLB), 52.8% hard-hit rate, and .479 ISO (second-best in MLB). He's smashed a whopping 10 home runs in that 73 at-bat span.

A date with Miles Mikolas awaits, and we can look for Stowers to pounce on the fly-ball hurler.

Mikolas comes in with a 4.94 ERA, 4.98 expected ERA, 4.69 xFIP, and a 16.1% strikeout rate. The northpaw is yielding a .471 SLG, 49.7% fly-ball rate, and 1.59 home runs per nine innings to left-handed hitters. He forces low walk (4.9%), strikeout (16.0%), and ground ball (32.8%) rates against this handedness, allowing his left-handed foes to settle things in play.

Stowers is the ideal man for the job, as the left-handed slugger is generating a .305 BA, .327 ISO, .632 SLG, and 42.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. He's been even more dominant on the road, showing a .328 BA and .344 ISO in the split.

Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (+400)

After going back and forth between Randy Arozarena (+340) and Julio Rodriguez (+400) as a home run pick in the Seattle Mariners' inviting matchup opposite Jeffrey Springs, I ultimately end up on the latter.

Rodriguez has produced a 12.9% barrel rate and .262 ISO across the past 30 days. He's shown exciting pop in the last week, holding team-leading marks in barrel rate (21.7%) and ISO (.419).

Springs enters with a 4.61 xFIP -- which spikes to a 4.74 xFIP when tossing at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. The lefty coughs up a .448 SLG and 51.7% fly-ball rate to righties when facing 'em at home. Springs has allowed at least one dinger in each of his nine home starts this campaign, so it's easy to see why we're on the Mariners' sluggers tonight.

Julio has produced a .500 SLG when given the platoon advantage this season, and he's up to a .323 BA and .355 ISO -- good for a .677 SLG -- when facing lefties on the road. Since June 30th, Rodriguez sports a .304 ISO versus the slider (106 pitches). Springs' slider is his second-most used pitch at a 27.2% usage rate.

I think Julio will get in on the fun tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.