John Deere Classic: Betting Picks, Course History, and Key Stats

Brandon Gdula•@gdula13

John Deere Classic: Betting Picks, Course History, and Key Stats

We're still two weeks out from The Open Championship at Royal Troon, and this week, the PGA Tour is heading to Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in a field that nobody would confuse for The Open's.

Sepp Straka (24th in the Official World Golf Rankings) is the only golfer inside the top-25 in the OWGR, and just two more -- Jason Day (28th) and Sungjae Im (29th) are in the top 30.

How should you bet this week's event?

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

TPC Deere Run Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

Par: 71
Distance: 7,289 yards (average)
Average Fairway Width: 38.4 yards (wide)
Average Green Size: 5,500 square feet (small-to-average)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 12
Recent Winning Scores: -21, -21, -19, -21, -27
Recent Cut Lines: -4, -3, -4, -3, -3

There was no tournament in 2020. The -27 score posted by Michael Kim in 2018 is the tournament record.

TPC Deere Run Course Key Stats

John Deere Classic Betting Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Sepp Straka

Odds to Win the John Deere Classic: +1600
To Finish Top 10 (+190)
To Finish Top 20 (-110)

Straka has a lot going for him, especially in the ball-striking department. He ranks third in the field in accuracy off the tee over the last 50 rounds, and he's sixth in strokes gained: approach -- as well as fourth in strokes gained: tee to green.

How's the putting? Not terrible (64th), though he putts better on bentgrass and poa greens than he does on Bermuda, and we're on bent this week.

In addition to the putting splits, the data says he should be due for some regression. He's an 80th-percentile putter from within 15 feet this season -- but a 6th-percentile putter from beyond that.

Throw in a win here last year and a 26th back in 2019 (bookending a missed cut in 2021, sure), and Straka has the makings of a standout play this week.

Maverick McNealy

To Win (+2800)
To Finish Top 10 (+300)
To Finish Top 20 (+140)

McNealy's odds have gone from +2500 to +3000 to +2800 so far this week, and that volatility is justified -- to a degree.

He's coming off of just a T44 last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic while struggling from the fairways and around the green but also had posted top-25 finishes in three straight before that: T23 at the PGA Championship, T17 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and T7 at the RBC Canadian Open.

McNealy has made all three career cuts at TPC Deere Run, starting with a T44 in 2017 and improving each year since: T18 (2021) and T8 in 2022.

McNealy is a stellar putter on bentgrass and really thrives everywhere relative to this field -- aside from his irons being a bit of a letdown (66th).

Despite that profile in years past, he's played the course well and enters with neutral -- not poor -- iron play. That can work at such an easy course for someone who should gain fairways on the field.

J.T. Poston

To Win (+3500)
To Finish Top 10 (+330)
To Finish Top 20 (+160)

Poston just checks all the boxes at TPC Deere Run, which is partly why he won here two years ago and followed it up with a T6 finish last year.

Poston ranks in the 66th-percentile in putting from within 15 feet and is a plus putter on bentgrass greens over the last year.

Additionally, he simply rates out well across the board without being elite anywhere and is top-55 in all four strokes gained stats over the last 50 rounds -- while also 19th in accuracy.

My model views him as a slight value at 35/1.

Mark Hubbard

To Win (+6000)
To Finish Top 10 (+500)
To Finish Top 20 (+230)

Mark Hubbard remains an interesting name even after a T52 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week without much in the way of standout stats (though he had positive strokes gained: approach and putting, the two most vital stats for spike weeks).

This is a good overall course fit for Hubbard, who has played here six times and made four cuts with three top-25 results.

His finishes over the two most recent years were a T13 and a T6, which he did in similar fashion: hitting fairways, sticking greens, and making putts.

Andrew Putnam

To Finish Top 20 (+400)

Putnam's win odds are sitting at +15000, which I don't mind, but there are enough concerns that it makes sense to take heed.

Putnam has now lost strokes from approach play in four straight measured events. But even over the last three months with those comprising 14 of his 26 rounds, he's still 47th in this field in approach -- and he's 33rd over the last 50 rounds.

Things should probably level out soon enough.

My model, which takes a longer-term view here, thinks he's a value at 4/1 to finish inside the top-20 at a course that suits his game and doesn't offer a deep field.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.