Italian Grand Prix Simulations: Can Ferrari Put a Full Race Together?

With Formula 1 headed to Monza this week for the Italian Grand Prix, the spotlight will be on Ferrari.

That ain't great.

Ferrari has, uh, shall we say, struggled under pressure? The phrase "Ferrari strategy gaffes" isn't optimized for search engines because the list of miscues is simply too long to narrow things down.

Well, friends, I'm gonna need them to buckle down and not screw the pooch. Just this one time.

When I compare my pre-weekend simulations for the Italian Grand Prix to FanDuel Sportsbook's Formula 1 betting odds, one team stands out as being undervalued. And it's Ferrari.

They don't need to be perfect because I'm not seeing much value on them to win. But in other markets, they grade out well. Here's the full run of sims entering the weekend.

For Charles LeClerc, the main value is for him to finish inside the top 10. He's at 83.1% in the simulations versus 79.2% implied at -380. It's Carlos Sainz who brings value in the upside markets.

I'm showing a healthy amount of value on Sainz to podium (+500), finish top 6 (+115), and finish top 10 (-300). Basically, he's a discount across the board, though I do understand why books may be down on him.

Sainz is yet to have a podium this year, and he hasn't finished better than fifth since the season-opener. In five races since McLaren brought its upgrades for Lando Norris, Sainz has just two top-six finishes.

But the speed for Sainz has been at least decent, and Monza should mesh well with Ferrari's preference for a high-speed track. That's why I think you could at least consider Sainz to reach the podium, something my model has him doing 22.3% of the time.

I think that might be a bit ambitious, which is why my preferred market is for Sainz to finish top six. He's 55.5% for me versus 46.5% implied at +115, and that +115 mark is pretty generous if you compare FanDuel to other sportsbooks. Sainz came through for us last week in this same market, and I think it's fair to be high on him once again on Sunday.

Have a driver you want to back for Monza? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's full Formula 1 betting odds to see who may be undervalued for the Italian Grand Prix.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.