Dutch Grand Prix Simulations: Can Carlos Sainz Get Back on Track?

After an excruciating layoff, Formula 1 is back from its summer break with plenty of intrigue.

Obviously, the top of the grid is settled with Max Verstappen and Red Bull coasting to titles. But everything behind them is, honestly, pretty thrilling.

With McLaren now in the mix, there are three non-Red Bull teams (potentially four if you count Aston Martin) in the mix for a podium each week. Even if that doesn't make the race itself a delight, it is fun for us as bettors.

Entering the Dutch Grand Prix, my model has things grouped pretty tightly behind the Red Bulls. There's separation, but you could argue that all six Mercedes, McLaren, and Ferrari drivers are at least in a comparable tier.

That's reflected in my model's pre-practice simulations, which are listed below.

Although the sims have things pretty tightly grouped, betting markets view more separation. And it leads to Carlos Sainz potentially being a bit undervalued.

Sainz is +115 to finish inside the top six in FanDuel Sportsbook's Formula 1 betting odds. That's much different from his teammate, Charles Leclerc, at -250, alongside Oscar Piastri. Although it's fair to rank him last in that tier (as my model does) the degree of separation is a bit extreme.

I've got Sainz at 49.2% to finish inside the top six, up from the market's implied odds of 46.5%. Since Lando Norris first received McLaren's upgrades four races ago, Sainz has just one top-six finish, so I get why the market is here. But given the speed Leclerc had at Spa before the break (and how fast Sainz was in the sprint and sprint shootout on Saturday), Sainz appears due for positive regression.

The other value relative to the market is Daniel Ricciardo. I was high on him entering Spa, and he promptly qualified 19th after having a lap deleted in qualifying. But he was solid in the sprint on Saturday, and his speed in the race Sunday was better than his finish would indicate.

The model has Ricciardo's top 10 odds at 39.3%. I think that's too high. But I also think his 19.6% implied odds at +410 are too long. I'm willing to roll the dice on Ricciardo again entering his third race back in the seat.

Think a certain driver is going to make a run following the summer break? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's Formula 1 betting odds to see if they stand out in any of the various markets.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.