Is Christian McCaffrey the Clear No. 1 Pick in Fantasy Football?

Christian McCaffrey has solidified himself as one of the greatest fantasy football players of our generation since joining the San Francisco 49ers.

CMC has scored 570.2 fantasy points in 27 games with San Fran, good for a 21.1 point-per-game average.

The 28-year-old has quieted any injury concerns, too. After playing 10 games total between 2020 and 2021, CMC's appeared in all but one game for the Niners. His lone absence came in Week 18 last season with the team having already locked up a playoff spot.

What is Christian McCaffrey's fantasy football outlook in 2024, and is he the clear No. 1 overall pick in drafts?

Fantasy points and rankings reference half point-per-reception (0.5 PPR) scoring formats. Statistics via PFF or Pro Football Reference unless otherwise stated.

Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Football Outlook

McCaffrey's 2023 Season

Last season, Christian McCaffrey rushed for 1,459 yards (first among running backs) and 14 touchdowns (second). He added 67 receptions (third), 564 receiving yards (second), and seven receiving touchdowns (first).

On his way to finishing as fantasy's RB1 overall, McCaffrey enjoyed some of the league's best utilization. According to NFL's NextGenStats, CMC posted the second-highest target share (18.6%) and snap rate (80.3%) among running backs while leading the position with 77% route participation.

McCaffrey's 2023 season was one for the ages. There's no shortage of mind-blowing CMC tidbits, but here are a few of my favorites:

• In half PPR, McCaffrey scored 357.8 fantasy points (22.4 FP/G). That was 102.6 more than the second-best running back and 22.1 more than the next-closest wide receiver.
• CMC scored more than 20 fantasy points 10 times in 16 games. He finished as a top-12 weekly running back 12 times.
• On ESPN, 72.8% of fantasy football playoff teams featured Christian McCaffrey. 58.9% of teams that rostered him advanced to the championship.

That last fact is perhaps the most jarring.

If you had Christian McCaffrey on your fantasy team, you had better than a coin flip's chance of making it to your league's championship game.

Bonkers.

But, as fun as that was, 2023 was in the past. We can reminisce on last season as much as we want, but the question remains: can he do it again?

CMC's Chances of Repeating in 2024

Asking Christian McCaffrey to repeat last year's numbers feels like a fools errand. His 357.8 fantasy points were the third-most of the past nine seasons, after all.

But if you're selecting CMC with one of the first few picks of your draft, you're doing so with the expectation that he'll be among the best running backs this season.

Here's how the prior year's RB1 finished the following season since 2016 (when FantasyPros began tracking half PPR scoring).

*Missed at least five games the next season.

The track record of the RB1 overall holding up the next season isn't great, but it's not completely hopeless.

Todd Gurley was the only one to repeat as the RB1 overall, but three of the last eight have still finished as a top-12 running back. That includes the three that missed significant time with injury the following year.

But the most consequential name in that table?

Christian McCaffrey.

You see, for as good as CMC was in 2023, that wasn't even his best season. In 2019, he averaged a staggering 25.8 fantasy points per game. If we exclude his injury-shortened 2020 and 2021 seasons, he followed up that 2019 campaign with an RB2 campaign in 2022 and another RB1 season in 2023.

So, if we're looking for an example an RB1 who stayed at the top of the position the year after, we don't have to look far. That speaks to how dominant CMC has been, and it bodes well for his chances of repeating as the RB1 in 2024.

On an offense as loaded as San Francisco's, it's hard not to buy into McCaffrey again. With Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy at the helm, San Francisco is projected to score 28.9 points per game this season -- 2.4 more than any other team, per Jim Sannes of FanDuel Research's model.

As the clear top offense according to numberFire's NFL Power Rankings, the Niners should be able to support another RB1 season from CMC. He's shown no signs of slowing down and appears to be past any previous injury concerns.

But, does that make him worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts?

Is McCaffrey the Clear Top Pick?

Yes.

Unequivocally, yes.

Even with the first-round of drafts expected to be dominated by wide receivers, Christian McCaffrey stands ahead of the pack given his consistence dominance.

Looking at the rest of the board, you surely wouldn't be upset about CeeDee Lamb (ADP 2.0) or Tyreek Hill (ADP 3.0). Both average north of 19 points per game last season, and both are expected to lead the WR position, according to our fantasy football projections.

But neither have the upside CMC does.

No wide receiver does.

In half PPR, only two receivers have averaged more than 20 points per game in the last five seasons. CMC has done that twice alone over that span -- even though he missed the majority of the 2020 and 2021 campaigns.

Sure, another running back could threaten McCaffrey's status at the top, but our projections and the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook still view CMC as king of the RBs.

You may be taking on a bit more injury risk with a running back than a receiver, but Christian McCaffrey has quieted any injury concerns the last two seasons.

A healthy CMC is the single biggest cheat code in fantasy football, and there's no other player who gives you a better chance to win your league than him.

Christian McCaffrey Football Projection

FanDuel Research's NFL projections have McCaffrey going for 1,453 rushing yards and 13.4 rushing touchdowns to go along with 76 receptions, 598 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns across a 17-game season.

That comes out to 351.7 fantasy points, first among non-quarterbacks and fifth among all players.

Those projections are right in line with CMC's RB1 ADP on FantasyPros and in FanDuel's best-ball drafts.

Considering his track record and stellar projection, it's easy to buy into Christian McCaffrey at his current ADP.

He showed few signs of slowing down last season and projects to be the key cog in the NFL's most prolific offense. Assuming he stays healthy, there's no one I'd rather take at the 1.01 in fantasy drafts than Christian McCaffrey.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.