Illinois vs Xavier Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament First Round

The No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) and the No. 11 seed Xavier Musketeers (22-11) will meet on Friday at 9:45 p.m. ET in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The matchup airs on CBS.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Illinois vs. Xavier Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Friday, March 21, 2025
• Game time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS
• Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
• Arena: Fiserv Forum

Illinois vs. Xavier Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Illinois win (59.7%)

Before placing a bet on Friday's Illinois-Xavier spread (Illinois -4.5) or over/under (161.5 points), check out the betting trends and insights below.

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Illinois vs. Xavier: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Illinois has put together a 16-16-0 ATS record so far this year.
• Xavier has compiled a 19-14-0 record against the spread this season.
• When the spread is set as 4.5 or more this season, Illinois (12-8) covers a lower percentage of those games when it is the favorite (60%) than Xavier (4-2) does as the underdog (66.7%).
• The Fighting Illini have a better record against the spread when playing at home (10-7-0) than they do in road games (5-5-0).
• In 2024-25 against the spread, the Musketeers have a better winning percentage at home (.588, 10-7-0 record) than away (.500, 6-6-0).

Illinois vs. Xavier: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Illinois has been victorious in 15, or 71.4%, of the 21 contests it has been chosen as moneyline favorites in this season.
• The Fighting Illini have a win-loss record of 13-5 when favored by -188 or better by bookmakers this year.
• Xavier has gone 1-10 in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 9.1% of those games).
• The Musketeers are 1-5 (winning just 16.7% of their games) when playing as a moneyline underdog of +158 or longer.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Illinois has a 65.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Illinois vs. Xavier Head-to-Head Comparison

• Illinois averages 83.8 points per game (ninth in college basketball) while giving up 74.6 per outing (258th in college basketball). It has a +304 scoring differential overall and outscores opponents by 9.2 points per game.
• Kasparas Jakucionis leads Illinois, recording 15 points per game (259th in college basketball).
• Xavier is outscoring opponents by 7.1 points per game, with a +235 scoring differential overall. It puts up 78.3 points per game (72nd in college basketball) and allows 71.2 per outing (154th in college basketball).
• Xavier's leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, is 101st in college basketball, putting up 17.2 points per game.
• The Fighting Illini win the rebound battle by 9.4 boards on average. They collect 39.6 rebounds per game, which ranks first in college basketball, while their opponents pull down 30.2 per contest.
• Tomislav Ivisic averages 7.7 rebounds per game (ranking 82nd in college basketball) to lead the Fighting Illini.
• The Musketeers record 30.2 rebounds per game (287th in college basketball), compared to the 29.8 of their opponents.
• Freemantle is 167th in the nation with seven rebounds per game, leading the Musketeers.
• Illinois averages 101.2 points per 100 possessions on offense (49th in college basketball), and gives up 90.1 points per 100 possessions (87th in college basketball).
• The Musketeers rank 32nd in college basketball with 102.8 points scored per 100 possessions, and 179th defensively with 93.5 points conceded per 100 possessions.

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