How to Bet on World Cup Outrights

We analyzed outright odds from every World Cup since the turn of the century and even added one more from 1998 for good measure. Today, we're going to look deeply into data from 8 World Cups, comprising 272 teams, to explain why this year might be a good time to take an alternative approach to World Cup outright betting.

Betting odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook's World Cup odds and are subject to change after this article is published.

How to bet on the 2026 World Cup.

World Cup Outright Betting Tips

The Best Range for World Cup Outright Bets

Underdogs and draws have performed well over the years in the group stage, but chalk is king in the knockout stages of the World Cup. In fact, things have gotten so top-heavy in the international soccer world lately that a team that began the World Cup outside of the top-4 favorites has not won in our 28-year sample.

The top-4 teams heading into the 2026 World Cup in North America are Spain, France, England, and Brazil. Each has won before, and history suggests the odds are good that one of them will repeat this summer. But should we expect the trends to continue when the World Cup format has changed so drastically? That's the question we'll answer today.

How Many Teams are Legitimate Contenders at the 2026 World Cup?

How many teams have a real shot any given summer? Being results-oriented over the past 7 iterations of the tournament might lead us toward an answer of 4 (as the previous paragraph suggests), but we can leverage the data to find a better number.

Economists will use something called the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) to measure market concentration and identify effective monopolies. We can apply this same index to the 2026 World Cup outright odds and see which teams dominate the market.

Let's first look back at the previous 7 World Cups (dating back to 1998) and see how many true contenders the HHI identified in those tournaments. Again, we are considering the final outright odds before the tournament kicks off to be a source of truth and applying the HHI to them.

Wow, the 2026 World Cup outright odds are more spread out than in years past, giving us a value of 13 true contenders, whereas each World Cup in the past 20 years has had only 8-10 (like Aaron Rodgers' take on the NFL).

Does this data change where we think the value lies in the outright betting market for World Cup 2026? Yes, but before we divulge our hottest takes, let's first explore some common pitfalls to avoid when futures betting.

What Are the Best 2026 World Cup Outright Bets?

The data we're seeing hints that the chalk isn't quite as likely to run deep in this year's World Cup. Expanding the field from 32 to 48 teams and the knockout rounds from 4 to 5 matches long make the top-4 thing less of a sure bet. Again, the HHI indicates there may be up to 13 true contenders in the 48-team field, so which ones are hiding inherent value and which are the narrative-driven suckers bets?

The top-ranked teams by FIFA right now are, in order, Spain, Argentina, France, and England. These 4 teams will receive the comfiest draws in the Round of 32, should they win their respective groups, as expected. The top-4 teams will always be the most likely to win, but we believe there to be the most value in the outright odds of teams in the 6-17th spot in the FIFA World Rankings. But not all of them. Let's break it down.

What makes these our favorite 2026 World Cup outright bets? Five of these 7 teams are the favorites to win their groups, and the other 2 are extremely likely to advance to the Round of 32, plus match up well with the group favorite (we're talking about Morocco with Brazil in Group C and Colombia with Portugal in Group K).

Doing well in the group stage this year holds extra value because there is more disparity in the draws of the Round of 32, as it is double the size of the traditional first knockout round. We like the teams just outside of the top 4 (Portugal, Belgium, Germany) a little more because they can swoop in and grab a top seed in the Round of 32 should one of the top-4 seeds stumble and not win their group. We love Mexico and Switzerland because they are likely to do well in the group stage and become dangerous matchups in the knockout rounds.

Morocco (+4000) and Colombia (+4000) are our favorite value plays of the entire tournament, blending a nice payout with legitimate plausibility due to their relatively high levels of talent and favorable group-stage matchups.

Who will lead the 2026 World Cup in goals? Here's the Golden Boot odds for 2026 as well as our Golden Boot picks and best bets.

Check out all of our 2026 World Cup content.

World Cup FAQ

When does the World Cup start?

The first match is June 11th. It pits Mexico versus South Africa at 3 p.m. ET.

Who does the US play in the 2026 World Cup?

The Americans' three group-stage matches are against Paraguay (June 12), Australia (June 19) and Turkey (June 25th).

When is the 2026 World Cup Final?

The final is scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?

Spain leads the betting board at +450 on FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by France at +580 and England at +600.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.