How Often Do 0-2 Teams Make the NFL Playoffs?

Every year, playoffs are the goal for each and every NFL team, but not every team can make it to the postseason.

The current NFL playoff format changed in 2021 to accommodate 14 total teams (7 from each conference) over a 17-game season.

This means that -- since 2021 -- 43.75% of NFL teams reach the playoffs.

Therefore, each team sitting with a 0-0 record entering the season, in theory, has a 43.8% chance to vie for the Super Bowl.

But since 2021, how have those odds changed when a team falls to 0-2?

How Many 0-2 Teams Have Made the Playoffs?

In this three-season stretch from 2021 to 2023, 21 teams have started off with exactly an 0-2 record.

Of those 21, only two have made it to the postseason for a 9.5% playoff rate.

Those two teams were the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022 (3 seed) and the Houston Texans in 2023 (4 seed), and they had pretty different paths after the 0-2 start.

Those 2022 Bengals had just a -6 point differential through two weeks, losing each of their first two games by a field goal.

They bounced back to win on the road against the New York Jets in Week 3 by a score of 27-12 and headed into their Week 10 bye with a 5-4 record. They went on to win every game after the bye to finish the season 12-4 and eventually reached the AFC Championship game.

As for the 2023 Texans, they didn't have such a great showing by point differential (-27) through two games.

They were stifled in Week 1 on the road against the Baltimore Ravens (25-9) and then lost 31-20 to the Indianapolis Colts in Houston.

After entering a Week 7 bye 3-3, Houston lost to the then-winless Carolina Panthers to fall to 3-4.

They caught fire and won three straight but went 1-2 in their following three before a 3-1 close to the season to finish 10-7. That was good enough to win them the AFC South.

They reached the Divisional Round but lost to the Ravens 34-10.

This Year's 0-2 Teams

In 2024, nine teams are off to an 0-2 start, the same number as we saw last season when just one of the nine (the Texans) made the playoffs.

Six of these teams are in the AFC.

Here are the nine teams, sorted by their playoff probability, via numberFire.

Baltimore Ravens

Playoff Probability: 52.6%

Baltimore is off to an uncharacteristically slow start (they haven't been 0-2 since 2015), but numberFire's model still sees them more likely than not to make the postseason.

Cincinnati Bengals

Playoff Probability: 49.7%

numberFire's model is also high on Cincinnati, who is again off to an 0-2 start with a -7 point differential, just one point worse than their 2022 start.

numberFire's data has them ranked 22nd offensively and 14th defensively, a profile solid enough to keep them competitive -- especially if the offense improves with the return of Tee Higgins.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Playoff Probability: 23.7%

The odds plummet to 23.7% for the Jacksonville Jaguars, in large part to the Texans' 2-0 start in the AFC South. Jacksonville is only 11.7% likely to win the division.

It's worth noting that their point differential is only -8, putting them tied for second on this list behind just the Bengals' -7.

Indianapolis Colts

Playoff Probability: 20.2%

The Colts are the other team with a -8 point differential, but they've struggled to maintain possession and have run the fewest offensive plays of any team in the NFL through two weeks (96).

Tennessee Titans

Playoff Probability: 11.4%

Yet another 0-2 AFC South team, the Tennessee Titans are sitting with a -14 point differential and the league's 27th-ranked adjusted offense (via numberFire).

Their defense is eighth, though, so perhaps they can turn things around and vie for a wild card spot in the AFC.

Los Angeles Rams

Playoff Probability: 6.1%

The Los Angeles Rams' 2024 season has already been derailed by injuries, as wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are out for multiple weeks.

numberFire's model is giving them just a 2.2% chance to win the NFC West.

Denver Broncos

Playoff Probability: 4.2%

The Denver Broncos have also suffered two one-score losses (26-20 to the Seattle Seahawks and 13-6 to the Pittsburgh Steelers) to open the season.

However, they're unfortunately in the same division as two 2-0 teams: the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs.

New York Giants

Playoff Probability: 1.9%

The New York Giants hold a -25 point differential through two games and are 0-2 in the NFC.

numberFire's model ranks them 26th or worse in adjusted offense and defense, making them one of two teams to rank bottom-eight in each.

Carolina Panthers

Playoff Probability: <0.1%

The Panthers are the other team to sit bottom-eight in adjusted offense (32nd) and defense (30th), and while their playoff odds are minuscule, they are turning the offense over to veteran QB Andy Dalton.

Their -60 point differential through two weeks is tied for the 20th-worst mark in NFL history.

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