How Does Braelon Allen Affect Breece Hall's Fantasy Football Outlook?

The top three running backs by average draft position (ADP) at FantasyPros are quickly headed toward a disaster. Along with Christian McCaffrey's ongoing Achilles tendonitis, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson's touches are now being challenged.

On Tuesday, we looked at the Atlanta Falcons' backfield. Now, let's shift our focus to the New York Jets with rookie running back Braelon Allen pushing for more and more snaps. Hall's slow start to the 2024 season suddenly puts his "surefire" fantasy football value squarely in danger. Let's look at the usage of both backs, followed by a breakdown of the Jets' backfield for fantasy football going forward.

Breece Hall's Usage

According to PlayerProfiler, Hall is carrying a 72.7% snap share (8th-highest at his position), a 67.2% opportunity share (16th-best), and 71.3 weighted opportunities (2nd-best). Every department is pretty much on par with the 2023 season, including the 14th-highest snap share, 12th-highest opportunity share, and the 2nd-most weighted opportunities. Keep in mind some of Hall's numbers were down last season as he was returning off of a knee injury early in the season.

Overall, the usage is looking good, so why worry? Hall already posted the sixth-most fantasy points per game in half-PPR a season ago, and his snap share looks even better early in the 2024 season. Of course, the fantasy production has not been there with Hall ranking 19th in fantasy points per game. This is firmly in danger, though, as Hall posted his lowest snap rate yet in Week 4 at 69% (previous low 71%).

This isn't a huge difference in snaps as Hall still took part in 51 plays. However, his touches were down to 12 (10 carries and two catches); his previous low was 20 touches in Week 3. From Week 6 on last season -- which was when Hall's workload was back to normal after his return from injury -- his touches only got this low in 1 of 11 games. His floor was 7 touches in a 30-point loss in Week 14. Last week's game was completely different, though. Barely getting touches in that 30-point loss makes sense with a negative game script, but the Jets were in a close 10-9 loss this past Sunday.

Week 4's touch share implies New York is beginning to have enough of Hall's inefficiencies, especially when Allen is producing. Let's look at the rookie's usage thus far.

Braelon Allen's Increased Role

Allen was a special back with the Wisconsin Badgers. He was actually recruited as a linebacker, but made a switch to running back in his true freshman season due to injuries in the Badgers' backfield. With few reps under his belt at halfback prior to taking over, Allen hit the ground running with 1,268 rushing yards and 6.8 yards per attempt in his freshman season. He followed that with 1,242 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per attempt in his sophomore season and 984 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per carry last season.

Throughout the draft process, Allen was advertised as a bruising back thanks to his 6-foot-1, 235-pound frame. As a pure rusher, he seemed in line to potentially become an early down back in the league.

Following four games, Allen is logging 4.8 yards per carry compared to Hall's 3.1. After only 1 rushing attempt in Week 1, the rookie has been rewarded with 7, 11, and 8 carries over the last three weeks. The snaps have increased in every week: 9, 20, 23, and 27. The rookie almost had as many early-down snaps as Hall in Week 4, and the second-half snaps were close to even. Hall played in 31 of 38 first-half snaps (81.6%); this fell to 20 of 36 snaps in the second half (55.5%).

Allen's potential as a early down back is becoming a huge threat to Hall's fantasy value.

Jets' Backfield Fantasy Football Outlook

Ultimately, Hall's value as a receiver and scoring potential are safe, for now. The receiving category will likely stay the same as Allen has never been advertised as a great receiver or third down back. Hall holds a 18.0% target share this season compared to Allen's 6.8%.

However, it's difficult to not worry about Hall's potential to score. If Allen is slowly taking more rushing attempts, that should mean more goal line work. We have yet to see this. In fact, Allen had most of his red zone work in Week 1 with a 62.5% red zone snap share, but it didn't lead to any red zone touches. In Week 2, Allen and Hall each had a 50.0% red zone rushing attempt share with one carry each.

Allen's role has kept increasing each week, yet his red zone work has dipped over the last two games. Hall has enjoyed a 87.5% red zone snap share and 62.5% red zone rushing attempt share since Week 3. Compare that to Allen's 18.8% snap share and 12.5% carry share in the split; maybe Hall's red zone work is safe.

Still, common sense says the more efficient rusher should be getting the red zone carries. Allen just logged 34 rushing yards on 8 attempts (4.3 yards per carry) in Week 4 compared to Hall's 4 yards on 10 attempts (0.4 yards per carry). Over four games, Allen is averaging 0.32 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) while Hall is logging only -0.08 in the category.

Hall still enjoyed a 71.4% snap share last week. For now, he's still a must-start in most fantasy leagues. But at the very least, Allen would be a smart handcuff to grab -- if available. It's difficult to ignore his superior efficiency and consistent jump in workload. After a near-even split in the second half of Week 4 paired with Allen's potential to get more red zone looks, keep a close eye on this Jets backfield.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.