How Did Quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft Class Perform Versus Good Defenses?

There were several things that could have keyed us off to Jayden Daniels' excellence as an NFL Draft prospect last year.

One of them is how well Daniels performed when he faced quality defenses. Daniels averaged 12.7 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) when facing top-50 defenses by Bill Connelly's SP+. That was only a hair down from his full-season mark of 13.6, and this doesn't account for what he added as a rusher.

When you look at that mark of 13.6 and compare it to the defenses Daniels faced, his AY/A was 5.2 yards higher than you would have expected, based on how past quarterback prospects had performed. That's the best mark among any FBS quarterback drafted since 2010, and he was only the second player to top 4.5 (the other being Tua Tagovailoa).

Given how wildly strength-of-schedule can vary across colleges, accounting for opponent is important. It provides context behind the numbers players put up. Metrics such as ESPN's Total QBR do this, which is why it's a key piece in my quarterback prospect model. But we can also dig into splits if we want to get an even more refined picture.

What do these numbers tell us about the 2025 NFL Draft class? We'll outline that today, discussing both the schedule these players faced and how they performed when they met resistance.

Which 2025 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospects Faced the Toughest Schedules?

As always, we'll be judging this by Bill Connelly's final defensive SP+ rankings for the 2024 college football season. If a quarterback faced an FCS opponent, their ranking was listed as 135, given there are 134 FBS schools.

The table below shows both the average defense ranking of the opponents and what percentage of that player's pass attempts came against top-50 defenses by SP+. For context, of the 163 FBS quarterbacks drafted since 2010, the average defensive ranking they've faced is 60.3, and an average of 47.4% of their pass attempts have come against top-50 defenses.

Yes, the 0.0% next to Seth Henigan is correct. If he's drafted, he'd be the first in our sample to not face a single top-50 defense. More than half of his games (7 of 13) came against defenses ranked outside the top 100.

Also near the bottom, you will notice Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. Ward's low ranking by average defense is mostly because he didn't face many elite teams. The toughest defense on the schedule was ranked 22nd. Still, there were a lot of somewhat decent defenses mixed in, and as we'll see later, he performed well against those.

As for Sanders, only 29.8% of his pass attempts came against top-50 defenses. That doesn't write him off, by any means, but it's good context to have. Of quarterbacks who have logged multiple top-10 seasons by Total Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) in the NFL, only Derek Carr (16.2% of attempts against top-50 defenses in his final collegiate season) was below 30% in this number.

On the flip side of things, Quinn Ewers, Will Howard, and Jalen Milroe faced the toughest roads. Ewers' average defensive ranking of 32.5 is the second-lowest since 2010, trailing only Justin Fields (24.6 due to the COVID-shortened schedule in 2020). Howard's mark of 38.0 is seventh-toughest, and Milroe's is 10th.

Which 2025 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospects Were the Best Against Good Defenses?

Facing tough teams is one thing, and it's important to note the overall schedule.

Performing well against them is another. Let's dig into that now.

The table below lays this out, showing each quarterback's AY/A (again, here, meaning adjusted yards per attempt, not air yards) when they faced top-50 defenses by SP+. For context, the average mark for drafted FBS quarterbacks since 2010 is 7.6.

Henigan and Graham Mertz were omitted here. Henigan was left out because -- again -- he didn't have any pass attempts, and Mertz's sample size was just 30 pass attempts due to his torn ACL.

This makes Ward's aforementioned schedule easier to stomach. He put up quality numbers when he got the chance.

So, too, did Jaxson Dart.

Dart's 10.7 AY/A ranks 12th among our sample of drafted FBS quarterbacks. Only 19 past quarterbacks have hit double digits, and only 9 of those did so while logging more than half their pass attempts against top-50 defenses. Two of those players -- Joe Burrow and Cam Newton -- went first overall. Daniels and Robert Griffin III went second overall, and Tua Tagovailoa went fifth. You also have Russell Wilson in this mix, who wound up a success despite not going in the first round. It's impressive company for Dart to keep.

It's also important to remember that Dart did this during his age-21 season. Only five other quarterbacks posted an AY/A of at least 10.0 against top-50 defenses and were less than 22 years old on Day 1 of the draft. Four of them went either first or second overall, and all five went in the top half of the first round. Dart's blend of youth, experience, and efficiency is why my model's ranking of the 2025 NFL Draft quarterback prospects has him atop the heap.

The data is less flattering for Milroe. He threw 8 touchdowns versus 10 picks when facing top-50 defenses. This type of metric will always underrate Milroe, who does so much damage with his legs, but it's still less than ideal given how important passing efficiency is for winning at the next level.

Takeaways

A couple things stand out when you wrap all this data together.

First, it's another data point that says Dart is deserving of the first-round buzz he has started to garner.

Second, although Ward didn't face the toughest schedule, he put up good numbers when the competition was stiff. It at least mutes some of the concerns around the schedule.

Finally, Sanders neither faced a tough schedule nor lit up opponents when he did. The team around him certainly played a role in this, too, so we can't fully blame Sanders for this. It's just another reason to solidify why my numbers on him feel a bit lower than the current draft sentiment.

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