Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Dinger Tuesday Home Run Predictions, Picks (Sept. 8)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Daulton Varsho (+520)
• Jonathan Aranda (+480)
• Lawrence Butler (+630)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Daulton Varsho (+520)

Astros at Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

Former top prospect Andrew Painter, a righty, is having a solid season for the Philadelphia Phillies. But he’s not missing a ton of bats, and he’s struggling a bit versus left-handed hitters, which puts me on Daulton Varsho to go yard.

Painter is allowing 1.64 homers per nine to lefties along with a .354 wOBA, 40.6% fly-ball rate and lowly 17.5% K rate in the split.

All but one of Varsho’s 10 long-balls this year have come with the platoon advantage. He also has a 45.7% fly-ball rate against RHPs and gets a boost from homer-happy Citizens Bank Park.

It doesn’t hurt that there’s a slight breeze (4 MPH) blowing out to right today in Philly.

Home Run Prediction: Jonathan Aranda (+480)

Rays at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

Right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver is getting the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and that has me interested in the Tampa Bay Rays‘ HR props.

Smith-Shawver hasn’t been sharp in his return from injury, recording a 13.1% walk rate and surrendering a 40.4% fly-ball rate through a small sample of 17.2 MLB frames this season. Over his career, he’s permitted 1.49 jacks per nine to lefty bats along with a 45.2% fly-ball rate in the split.

Enter Jonathan Aranda, who can take advantage of this matchup.

Aranda has popped 19 dingers this season, 16 of which have come with the platoon advantage. He boasts a .366 wOBA, 41.7% hard-hit rate and 41.3% fly-ball rate in the split. He’s also in a groove right now, homering three times over his last 36 plate appearances en route to a .399 wOBA in that span.

Home Run Prediction: Lawrence Butler (+630)

Blue Jays at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

At these odds, Lawrence Butler is my favorite HR bet for Tuesday night.

Butler will see RHP Jose Soriano. Soriano started the year on fire, and while he still has good season-long numbers, he’s slowed considerably as the year has progressed. Over his past four outings, he owns a 5.64 ERA with a 16.8% K rate.

Butler has been the opposite of Soriano, starting slowly but catching fire in the second half. He’s put up a .363 wOBA since the break and has eight homers in that time. He loves hitting at home, producing a 40.3% hard-hit rate in Sacramento, compared to a 31.5% hard-hit rate on the road. He also has a .353 wOBA at home — miles better than his .267 road wOBA.

Given Butler’s form, the matchup and where this game is being played, there’s a lot to like about these HR odds.

It’s Dinger Tuesday!

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Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.