Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Wednesday, August 19

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ceddanne Rafaela (+750)
• Jonathan Aranda (+440)
• Andy Pages (+330)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props, Best Bets Today

Home Run Prediction: Ceddanne Rafaela (+750)

Diamondbacks at Red Sox, 4:11 p.m. ET

Brandon Pfaadt is getting the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and Pfaadt’s numbers against righties pushes me toward Ceddanne Rafaela‘s long homer odds.

Pfaadt, a right-hander, has some reverse-splits tendencies, giving up a 39.5% hard-hit rate and 37.9% fly-ball rate to righty bats. Pfaadt is due to allow more homers, as well, as his 7.8% homer-to-fly-ball rate is well below his career clip of 12.7%.

Rafaela boasts an excellent second-half batted-ball profile, producing a 38.9% hard-hit rate and 40.2% fly-ball rate since the break. He’s got five dingers with a .387 wOBA over his past 81 plate appearances.

On top of that, Arizona’s bullpen owns the sixth-worst xFIP over the last 14 days.

Home Run Prediction: Jonathan Aranda (+440)

Blue Jays at Rays, 6:41 p.m. ET

Veteran Max Scherzer is running on fumes, and he’s in a tough spot today against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Scherzer has struggled to a 5.07 SIERA and 17.1% strikeout rate. He’s been hammered by lefty bats to the tune of a .400 wOBA, 53.4% fly-ball rate and 2.59 homers per nine.

That makes this a great matchup for Jonathan Aranda, who has 15 home runs this year, 14 of which have come against RHPs. With the platoon advantage, Aranda sports a .373 wOBA, 40.2% hard-hit rate and 41.0% fly-ball rate.

As the cherry on top, the Toronto Blue Jays have the second-worst reliever xFIP across the last 14 days.

Home Run Prediction: Andy Pages (+330)

Dodgers at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

The Los Angeles Dodgers are enjoying their time at Coors, and that should continue tonight versus southpaw Kyle Freeland.

Freeland has posted improved numbers in 2026, including a 4.23 SIERA. But he still doesn’t miss many bats (18.3% K rate), and he’s surrendering 1.64 bombs per nine. Right-handed hitters have a .388 wOBA and 49.5% hard-hit rate against him.

Andy Pages can take advantage. Pages has followed up his 2025 breakout with another strong season, generating a career-best .348 wOBA with 21 tanks. He’s at his best versus lefties, racking up a .389 wOBA, 42.5% hard-hit rate and 43.4% fly-ball rate in the split.

With a .393 wOBA over his last 86 plate appearances and a friendly matchup in the game’s best park for hitters, Pages is a quality HR pick on Wednesday.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.