Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Thursday, August 27

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Cody Bellinger (+440)
• Jackson Chourio (+390)
• Rafael Devers (+430)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Cody Bellinger (+440)

Astros at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

We hit on a New York Yankees left-handed slugger yesterday. I’m going back to the well today and targeting Cody Bellinger.

Hayden Wesneski is starting for the Houston Astros. Over his career, Wesneski has allowed 1.73 homers per nine to lefty bats while pitching to a 4.45 xFIP in the split.

Bellinger just returned from injury, and he’s hit the ground running, notching a hit in each of his first three games back and popping one dinger. He loves hitting at Yankee Stadium, with nine of his 12 long-balls coming in the Bronx this year. His fly-ball rate at home is 47.4%, compared to 41.8% on the road.

Once Wesneski is out of the game, Bellinger will match up with a Houston bullpen that has given up the sixth-most homers per nine (1.26).

Home Run Prediction: Jackson Chourio (+390)

Brewers at Mets, 7:11 p.m. ET

Southpaw Sean Manaea is taking the ball for the New York Mets, and that makes Jackson Chourio an appealing target.

Manaea’s results are solid enough this campaign. His underlying numbers aren’t as good as he owns a 4.80 xFIP and is letting up 1.46 jacks per nine. He’s permitting a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters along with 1.64 bombs per nine and a 46.0% fly-ball rate in the split.

Chourio has put up a .344 wOBA and 39.5% hard-hit rate, both of which are career-high marks. His wOBA with the platoon advantage is .357, and he’s got a .351 wOBA over his last 36 plate appearances so he’s swinging it well.

After Manaea, Chourio will take his hacks against a Mets bullpen that has the 11th-worst second-half xFIP (4.43).

Home Run Prediction: Rafael Devers (+430)

Diamondbacks at Giants, 9:46 p.m. ET

In today’s lone late game, Rafael Devers catches my eye.

Devers will see Arizona Diamondbacks rookie righty Jose Cabrera. Through his first 17.2 MLB frames, Cabrera has allowed 1.53 homers per nine while struggling to a 5.16 SIERA.

Devers has quietly had a nice year, generating a .347 wOBA with 29 tanks — 24 of which have come versus RHPs. Devers has a huge .398 wOBA against righties, and he’s red-hot right now, amassing a .426 wOBA with five homers over his last 53 plate appearances.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.