Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Saturday, August 22

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Shohei Ohtani (+235)
• Willson Contreras (+450)
• Jose Ramirez (+430)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props, Best Bets Today

Home Run Prediction: Shohei Ohtani (+235)

Pirates at Dodgers, 7:16 p.m. ET

Ohtani enters Saturday with 30 homers with a .396 wOBA, and he already showed off his power earlier this week with a two-homer performance at Coors Field.

The Los Angeles Dodgers face Jared Jones, who has posted a 4.78 ERA across 14 starts since returning from elbow surgery. Jones' underlying 3.68 expected ERA is better, but he has worked only 64 innings in those 14 outings, potentially giving Los Angeles plenty of chances against the Pittsburgh bullpen as well.

Ohtani's ability to drive the ball against right-handed pitching makes him one of the strongest HR options on the slate.

Home Run Prediction: Willson Contreras (+450)

Giants at Red Sox, 7:16 p.m. ET

Contreras gives us a way to attack one of Saturday's more appealing pitching matchups without paying the short price attached to some of the game's biggest stars.

The Boston Red Sox get right-hander Blade Tidwell at Fenway Park. Tidwell owns a 4.33 ERA over 27 innings this season, and his most recent start was particularly shaky as he surrendered six earned runs in only 4 1/3 innings against Colorado (and it wasn’t at Coors).

Contreras also comes into this matchup swinging a hot bat. He crushed a 450-foot three-run homer in Friday's series opener against the San Francisco Giants, giving us both a favorable matchup and encouraging recent form.

Fenway usually a good venue for offense, and Contreras has enough pull-side power to take advantage of Tidwell if he catches a mistake.

Home Run Prediction: Jose Ramirez (+430)

Guardians at Rockies, 8:11 p.m. ET

Ramirez hasn't put up his usual home run numbers this season, which could actually make him an intriguing value option Saturday.

The biggest reason is the venue. The Cleveland Guardians are playing at Coors Field in warm conditions, and the Guardians are projected to face right-hander Gabriel Hughes. Hughes has a 6.69 ERA through seven starts, while his 8.0% swinging-strike rate leaves plenty of opportunities for opposing hitters to make contact.

Ramirez has only 10 home runs this season, but he's still hitting near the top of Cleveland's order and owns a long track record as one of baseball's better hitters.

A switch-hitter with strong pull power at long HR odds getting multiple plate appearances at Coors against a struggling starter sounds like a good situation to me.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.