Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Labor Day (Sept. 7)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Pete Alonso (+410)
• Jackson Chourio (+440)
• Seiya Suzuki (+490)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Pete Alonso (+410)

Guardians at Orioles, 1:36 p.m. ET

Pete Alonso is my favorite combination of power and odds on Monday.

Alonso enters the day with 33 home runs in 144 games. The handedness matchup versus Joey Cantillo is particularly appealing for the right-handed Alonso, even though his 2026 results against lefties haven't been as dominant as we've typically seen from him.

Cantillo has been solid overall with a 3.81 ERA and 151 strikeouts, but Camden Yards is a much better setting for Alonso's right-handed power than some of the more pitcher-friendly parks on today's slate.

Alonso’s combination of elite raw power, the platoon advantage and a favorable park makes him an enticing target.

Home Run Prediction: Jackson Chourio (+440)

Cubs at Brewers, 2:11 p.m. ET

Jackson Chourio stands out at +440 against Chicago Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd. Chourio has 21 home runs through 109 games this season, and his underlying contact quality backs up the power production.

Chourio owns a .192 ISO while producing a 91.8-mph average exit velocity and 47.5% hard-hit rate in 2026. Those last two marks are comfortably above the MLB averages of 88.4 mph and 39.6%, respectively. The right-handed Chourio will also have the platoon advantage against Boyd, who enters Monday with a 4.05 ERA.

American Family Field adds to the appeal, and Chourio has four tanks over his previous 53 plate appearances.

Home Run Prediction: Seiya Suzuki (+490)

Cubs at Brewers, 2:11 p.m. ET

I'll go back to Cubs-Brewers for the final selection and take Seiya Suzuki at +490 against Robert Gasser, who comes into the game with a 4.57 ERA and 82 strikeouts.

Suzuki has supplied plenty of power this year, hitting 24 home runs in 126 games. The right-handed hitter gets the platoon advantage against Gasser, and Suzuki’s' 2026 splits show him hitting .289 against left-handed pitching. Gasser has also surrendered 15 home runs across the 16 starts , so there is enough long-ball vulnerability here to make Suzuki interesting.

Suzuki's combination of power, platoon advantage and a matchup with a starter carrying a 4.57 ERA makes him an appealing target.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.