Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Friday, September 18

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Yordan Alvarez (+260)
• Matt Olson (+320)
• Mike Trout (+450)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+260)

Braves at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Yordan Alvarez is having a monster season, and the underlying power numbers give us plenty of reason to buy into him against Tyler Mahle.

Alvarez enters Friday with 40 home runs, a .287 ISO and a 1.027 OPS. Even more impressively, Statcast has him sporting a 16.3% barrel rate, 53.2% hard-hit rate and 94.3-mph average exit velocity. His expected wOBA is a laughable .444.

He's also swinging a hot bat. Alvarez homered Thursday against Kansas City after also going deep Tuesday. In all, he’s got three home runs over his last eight games.

Mahle is expected to be Atlanta's starter tonight. The right-hander owns a 3.91 ERA, but he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, recording a 9.8% swinging-strike rate.

Alvarez's combination of elite contact quality, current form and Mahle's meh stuff makes Yordan an elite target.

Home Run Prediction: Matt Olson (+320)

Braves at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Sticking with the same Houston Astros-Atlanta Braves game, Matt Olson stands out in a date with Peter Lambert.

Olson is hitting .250 with 39 home runs and a .503 slugging percentage this season. Baseball Savant has him at a 52.9% hard-hit rate and 14.7% barrel rate. Those are top-tier numbers.

Lambert owns a 3.71 ERA over the season, but his xFIP is 4.44. He’s been slumping of late, too, producing a 6.33 ERA over his past five starts.

Olson also has been excellent against right-handed pitching in 2026, boasting a 42.2% hard-hit rate and 48.6% fly-ball rate in the split. He’s gone yard twice over his last 27 plate appearances and can take advantage of the friendly matchup with Lambert.

Home Run Prediction: Mike Trout (+450)

Twins at Angels, 9:39 p.m. ET

Mike Trout is an interesting home run target Friday against Minnesota Twins left-hander Connor Prielipp. Trout has already shown plenty of power against southpaws this season, posting a .358 wOBA and 45.8% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage.

For the most part, Prielipp has been solid for the Twins in his rookie campaign, but he’s faltered of late, struggling to a 6.46 ERA over his last six appearances.

Once Prielipp departs, Trout will face a Twins bullpen that sits fifth-worst in reliever xFIP this season.

While Trout has only one homer since August 11, I like this matchup for him and am intrigued by these odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.