Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Friday, September 11

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Gunnar Henderson (+460)
• Max Muncy (+420)
• Jordan Walker (+390)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Gunnar Henderson (+460)

Orioles at Blue Jays, 7:08 p.m. ET

Gunnar Henderson has a friendly matchup with veteran righty Max Scherzer.

Scherzer has struggled to a 5.10 SIERA and 17.6% strikeout rate in 2026. Lefties have tattooed him for a .359 wOBA, 54.3% fly-ball rate and 1.89 homers per nine.

Enter Henderson, who is having a meh campaign overall but still has 22 long-balls. He owns a 42.6% hard-hit rate with the platoon advantage, and once Max is out of the game, Henderson will take on a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that has let up the 12th-most homers per nine over the last 30 days.

Home Run Prediction: Max Muncy (+420)

Dodgers at Marlins, 7:11 p.m. ET

The high-powered Los Angeles Dodgers offense matches up with Ryan Gusto and a blah Miami Marlins bullpen. That puts me on Max Muncy to leave the yard.

Gusto, a RHP, has just a 19.3% K rate on the season, and that clip drops to 17.8% against left-handed hitters. He’s also allowing a 40.8% hard-hit rate to lefty bats.

Muncy has hit 27 bombs this year with a .365 wOBA. Of those 27 home runs, 21 have come against RHPs. Muncy has posted a 42.2% hard-hit rate and 43.9% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage.

After Gusto, Muncy gets to take his hacks against a Marlins bullpen that has the fifth-worst xFIP over the past 30 days.

Home Run Prediction: Jordan Walker (+390)

White Sox at Cardinals, 8:16 p.m. ET

Lefty Anthony Kay presents a mouthwatering matchup for breakout slugger Jordan Walker.

Kay doesn’t miss many bats, recording an 18.3% strikeout rate. Righties have tagged him for a .378 wOBA and 1.63 jacks per nine. Overall, he’s permitted 1.39 homers per nine in the second half. Plus, he’ll turn it over to a Chicago White Sox bullpen that sits 10th-worst in xFIP on the year.

Walker has superb numbers in about every split. He’s been especially lethal versus southpaws, amassing a .394 wOBA, 52.3% hard-hit rate and 40.4% fly-ball rate in the split.

Although Walker has cooled a bit in the second half, this is a great spot for him to go deep.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.