Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks at +440 Odds or Longer

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jazz Chisholm +490
• Michael Busch +440
• Bryan Reynolds +520

With the help of our MLB projections, here are the three home run props worth targeting on FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promo for today!

YOU CAN CHOOSE between a Bet Reset Token OR a 50% Profit Boost Token to use on a “To Hit a Home Run” wager on any MLB Games taking place on June 9th, 2026!

See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Home Run Picks: Home Run Prop Bets for Today

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+490)

White Sox at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

After a slow start to the campaign, Jazz Chisholm has righted the ship. He generated a .351 wOBA in May and is at a .353 wOBA so far in June. He's dialed in right now, producing a 54.5% hard-hit rate this month while already popping three June home runs.

Today, Jazz is at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium against RHP Davis Martin. Martin is having a much-improved season for the Chicago White Sox, but his 4.5% homer-to-fly-ball rate is unsustainably low. He's due to start giving up more tanks, and that might happen tonight.

With the platoon advantage at home in 2025, Jazz amassed a .387 wOBA with 16 dingers. This is a great split for him, and after Martin is out of the game, Chisholm will see a Chicago 'pen that ranks eighth-worst in xFIP.

Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Rockies at Cubs, 8:06 p.m. ET

I'm a little guilty of going to the Michael Busch well too often this season, but here I am once again as Busch is my favorite HR pick today.

Busch is at home against right-hander Ryan Feltner, and Busch does work against RHPs. A season ago, Busch hit 34 homers, 30 of which came with the platoon advantage. So far this season, six of his eight long-balls have come in the split, and he owns a .360 wOBA, 40.0% hard-hit rate and 44.0% fly-ball rate versus RHPs.

Busch has also been much more productive at home, putting up a .385 wOBA at Wrigley, compared to a .327 wOBA in his travels.

The matchup is a good one as Feltner has pitched to a 4.73 SIERA this year while letting up 1.49 jacks per nine.

On top of all that, the wind is blowing out to right at 15 MPH today at Wrigley, and the Colorado Rockies have the 11th-worst reliever xFIP.

Bryan Reynolds to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Pirates at A's, 9:41 p.m. ET

With a huge park-factor bump today, Bryan Reynolds is an enticing home run bet at these long odds.

Reynolds and the Pittsburgh Pirates are at Sutter Health Park tonight, which ranks as the best park for offense in 2026, per Statcast.

They'll see Jack Perkins, a right-hander. Perkins has operated mostly out of the bullpen in his MLB career, but he's started in his last two appearances, going four innings in each while allowing three total homers and eight earned runs. He'll be followed by an Athletics 'pen that is likely running on fumes a bit after playing a week of home run derby baseball in Vegas.

Reynolds is having a stellar season, racking up a .370 wOBA with a career-best (by a mile) 15.6% walk rate. His hard-hit rate of 38.1% is his best clip since 2019, and he's hit two bombs over his last 31 plate appearances.

There's a lot to like about him at these sizable odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.