Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks for June 23, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Luke Raley to Hit a Home Run (+410)
• Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+340)
• Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+330)

With the help of our MLB projections, here are the three home run props worth targeting on FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

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Home Run Picks: Home Run Prop Bets for Today

Luke Raley to Hit a Home Run (+410)

Mariners at Pirates, 6:41 p.m. ET

Luke Raley catches my eye today as this looks like a good spot for him.

Raley is on the road at the Pittsburgh Pirates and will see righty Mitch Keller. This is Raley's preferred split, with the Seattle Mariners' slugger raking against RHPs to the tune of a .364 wOBA, 43.4% hard-hit rate and 46.4% fly-ball rate. Of Raley's 14 long-balls this season, all 14 have come against right-handers.

Keller is having a tough campaign, pitching to a 4.58 SIERA and 8.6% swinging-strike rate. Lefties have gotten to him for a .334 wOBA.

On top of all that, it's superb HR weather in Pittsburgh -- warm with the wind blowing out to right.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Phillies at Nationals, 6:46 p.m. ET

Zack Littell is in bulk relief today for the Washington Nationals, and that has me interested in Bryce Harper.

Littell's numbers have fallen off a cliff this season as he owns a 5.31 SIERA and 13.1% K rate. Left-handed hitters are mauling him, with Littell giving up a .421 wOBA in the split along with 3.82 homers per nine. He's let up five jacks over his previous two starts, a stretch that covered only 6.2 innings.

Harper is having another outstanding season, racking up a .409 expected wOBA. Against RHPs, he's got a gaudy .436 wOBA and 41.4% hard-hit rate.

Once Littell is out of the game, Harper will see a Nats bullpen that has allowed the fourth-most HRs per nine with the second-worst xFIP.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Orioles at Angels, 9:39 p.m. ET

Gunnar Henderson is swinging a hot bat, and I like tonight's matchup for him versus Ryan Johnson.

Over his last 45 plate appearances, Henderson has produced a .443 wOBA with three bombs and a 53.3% hard-hit rate. Dude is locked in. His batted-ball profile this year is much better on the road (40.2% hard-hit rate and 40.2% fly-ball rate) than at home.

Johnson has thrown just 13.1 MLB innings this year, and it hasn't gone well, with Johnson struggling to a 6.17 SIERA while giving up 3.38 HRs per nine. The Los Angeles Angels' relievers aren't much better, with the Halos' bullpen allowing the sixth-worst xFIP and seventh-most home runs per nine.

Lastly, there's a 7-MPH wind blowing out to center in LA.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.