Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 5/13/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Elly De La Cruz
• Owen Caissie
• Alec Burleson

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Nationals at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

Elly De La Cruz checks a lot of boxes today.

He's at his homer-friendly home park against Jake Irvin, a right-handed pitcher who struggles mightily with left-handed hitters.

In 2025, Irvin gave up a .384 wOBA and 2.32 bombs per nine innings to lefty bats. Yes, please.

Elly does his best work versus RHPs, producing a career .361 wOBA in the split. He also rakes at Great American Ball Park, with a .454 wOBA at home this season. He's popped 10 dingers this year, and seven of them have come in Cincy.

Once Irvin is out of the game, Elly will see a Washington Nationals bullpen that sits fourth-worst in reliever xFIP.

Owen Caissie to Hit a Home Run (+590)

Marlins at Twins, 7:41 p.m. ET

When looking for pitchers to pick on in the HR market, I want to target guys who struggle to miss bats and give up a lot of loud contact. That's Simeon Woods Richardson.

The Minnesota Twins' righty sports a 5.69 SIERA and 10.6% K rate while allowing a 44.6% fly-ball rate and 40.8% hard-hit rate. A rash of pitching injuries for the Twins is likely the only thing keeping him in the rotation.

Luckily for us, the Miami Marlins don't have much pop, so they have just one guy with HR odds shorter than +500 (Kyle Stowers at +370). And to make matters even better for Miami, the Twins have the worst reliever xFIP in the game, so they'll be in a good spot all night long.

Owen Caissie catches my eye at these long odds. While the results haven't been there for Caissie, he has a gaudy 46.6% fly-ball rate overall and a 45.5% hard-hit rate against RHPs. His 41.3% K rate is a massive problem, but it's not as much of a concern today versus Woods Richardson.

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Cardinals at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

This is my favorite homer bet today.

The park-factor box is definitely checked as Alec Burleson and the St. Louis Cardinals get a significant venue lift today in Sacramento. Last year, the A's temporary home played as the best park for offense and the fifth-best park for jacks, per Statcast.

Burleson's matchup is appealing, too. He'll see JT Ginn. While Ginn isn't a bad pitcher by any means, he isn't getting as many punchouts as usual this season (20.7% K rate), and lefty bats are tagging him for 1.42 home runs per nine.

Burleson is mashing RHPs this year to the tune of a .388 wOBA. Five of his six long-balls have come with the platoon advantage, and he's hot right now, putting up a .407 expected wOBA across his last 58 plate appearances.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.