Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 5/14/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Sal Stewart
• Jordan Walker
• Bobby Witt Jr.

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Sal Stewart to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Nationals at Reds, 12:41 p.m. ET

This is a sweet spot for Sal Stewart.

The Cincinnati Reds are at home against southpaw Foster Griffin. Griffin's return to the bigs has gone fairly well as he boasts a 3.94 SIERA. However, he's not missing many bats (9.6% swinging-strike rate), and that makes Great American Ball Park a scary venue for him.

Stewart is having a superb season and is in the mix to win NL Rookie of the Year. He's destroyed left-handers this year, racking up a .445 wOBA and comical 58.3% hard-hit rate in the split over a small sample. He's also been great at home, posting a .413 wOBA in Cincy.

After Foster leaves the game, Stewart should still be in good matchups as the Washington Nationals have the fourth-worst reliever xFIP.

In a great park for dingers and with the platoon advantage, Stewart can hit a bomb today.

Jordan Walker to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Cardinals at A's, 3:06 p.m. ET

The combination of a date with lefty Jacob Lopez and a game in homer-friendly Sacramento make Jordan Walker an appealing HR pick.

Oh, it also doesn't hurt that Walker is having a monster 2026, putting up a .402 wOBA and 11 jacks. His underlying metrics all check out as he boasts a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 44.3% fly-ball rate.

Lopez has shown some intriguing upside in the past, but it hasn't been there this season. He's struggled to a 5.71 SIERA and 7.7% swinging-strike rate. He's allowed a 52.6% fly-ball rate, and right-handed hitters have tagged him for a .398 wOBA and 2.45 homers per nine.

In Lopez's last home start, he gave up two tanks and six earned runs. The St. Louis Cardinals can give him fits today, and I like Walker to get in on the fun.

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+410)

Royals at White Sox, 7:41 p.m. ET

Anthony Kay is having a rough 2026, struggling to a 5.02 SIERA, 8.1% swinging-strike rate and 15.3% K rate. Righties are mauling him to the tune of a .442 wOBA and 2.16 jacks per nine.

Enter Bobby Witt Jr., one of the game's elite right-handed hitters.

Witt's power output had been a little muted until recently as he's got seven homers -- four of which have come over his last six games. But his under-the-hood metrics are as good as ever as he boasts a .390 expected wOBA, 42.4% fly-ball rate and 40.3% hard-hit rate.

The Chicago White Sox have the ninth-worst reliever xFIP, so Witt should see advantageous matchups all game.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.