Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 5/8/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Elly De La Cruz
• Munetaka Murakami
• Vinnie Pasquantino

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets, Props and Picks for Today

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+410)

Astros at Reds, 6:11 p.m. ET

Elly De La Cruz is on my dinger radar today in a home date with righty Mike Burrows.

Burrows is permitting a 41.9% fly-ball rate this season, leading to 1.91 home runs per nine innings. The gopher-ball issue is nothing new as he's given up 1.45 jacks per nine over his career. An outing at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park makes him a good pitcher to pick on.

Elly has 10 tanks already this season while generating a .370 wOBA. He's much better at home (.443 wOBA) than on the road (.305), and over his career, he's been more productive against right-handed hurlers (.359 wOBA).

On top of all that, the Houston Astros' bullpen is next to last in reliever xFIP, so Elly should have good matchups all night.

In his preferred split and facing a pitcher with HR issues at one of the best parks for offense, De La Cruz is my favorite homer pick for Friday.

Munetaka Murakami to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Mariners at White Sox, 7:41 p.m. ET

Munetaka Murakami was advertised as a hitter with massive power who would swing and miss a lot. He's been exactly that.

Through his first 160 MLB plate appearances, Murakami has mashed 14 long balls while racking up a 34.4% K rate. He's got a .398 wOBA, and he's been lights out versus RHPs, with 10 of his 14 bombs coming in the split. He owns a 50.0% hard-hit rate and 46.4% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage.

Today, Murakami will see Seattle Mariners RHP Emerson Hancock. A solid pitcher overall who is off to a nice start this campaign, Hancock has struggled with homers throughout his career, including this season as he's surrendering 1.51 home runs per nine (1.71 to lefty bats). He's also not nearly as good on the road (4.00 xFIP) as he is at home (1.95).

Murakami has quickly established himself as one of baseball's premier power bats, and I like this matchup for him.

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Tigers at Royals, 7:41 p.m. ET

Keider Montero is throwing today for the Detroit Tigers, and that has me interested in HR odds for a few Kansas City Royals. Ultimately, I land on Vinnie Pasquantino as my favorite KC target.

Montero has allowed 1.67 homers per nine and a 40.3% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters over his career. In a small sample in 2026, he's been tagged by lefties for a 57.9% fly-ball rate.

Pasquantino does his best work in this split, recording a .364 wOBA against RHPs a season ago, with 26 of his 32 dingers coming in this split. He's homered twice across his last 31 plate appearances, and he can taker advantage of a struggling Montero.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.