Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Dinger Tuesday 5/12/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Oneil Cruz
• Yandy Diaz
• Jordan Walker

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Rockies at Pirates, 6:41 p.m. ET

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a mouth-watering matchup tonight versus RHP Michael Lorenzen, and that pushes me toward Oneil Cruz's HR prop.

Lorenzen's first campaign with the Colorado Rockies is not going well as he owns a 4.56 SIERA and 13.7% strikeout rate. Left-handed hitters are blowtorching him to the tune of a .535 wOBA and 3.31 home runs per nine innings. And it's not all Coors related as he's actually giving up more HRs per nine on the road (1.77) than at home (1.45).

Cruz has elite raw power. While he struggles with strikeouts (33.7% K rate), when he makes contact, it's usually loud as he boasts a 44.2% hard-hit rate and .358 expected wOBA.

Once Lorenzen leaves the game, Cruz will face a Colorado bullpen that has surrendered the seventh-most homers per nine.

Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+570)

Rays at Blue Jays, 7:08 p.m. ET

Patrick Corbin is taking the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays, and that puts the Tampa Bay Rays on my radar. Of the Rays' HR props, Yandy Diaz is my favorite.

Corbin was signed by Toronto as an injury fill-in, and he's recorded a 4.49 SIERA and 16.9% K rate through 30 frames. His strikeout rate against right-handed bats is a lowly 12.9%.

Enter Diaz.

Diaz hit 25 tanks last season and has a .368 wOBA so far in 2026. He's at his best versus southpaws, producing a .383 wOBA and 45.2% hard-hit rate in the split this year.

At long odds, Diaz to go yard is my favorite HR bet for Dinger Tuesday.

Jordan Walker to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Cardinals at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

Jordan Walker is breaking all the way out.

Once a top prospect, Walker's MLB career was mostly underwhelming until this season. He already has as many bombs this year (11) as he produced over the past two years combined (11). Under the hood, everything looks legit, too, as he's got a .398 expected wOBA, 45.5% hard-hit rate and 43.6% fly-ball rate.

Against lefties, he's racked up a .410 wOBA and 50.0% hard-hit rate. Today, he'll see left-hander Jeffrey Springs in homer-friendly Sacramento.

Springs has pitched to a 4.48 SIERA since the start of 2025 while surrendering 1.47 jacks per nine in that span. He's given up 2.21 homers per nine at home this season, and that mark was at 1.86 per nine a year ago -- so he's struggled at the A's temporary home.

To make things even better, the A's bullpen has the 11th-worst reliever xFIP, so Walker should be in a good spot all night. Plus, the wind is blowing out to center at 10 MPH. All the boxes are checked.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.