Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Dinger Tuesday 4/28/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Bryce Harper
• Ian Happ
• Vinnie Pasquantino

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

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Best Home Run Bets, Props and Picks for Today

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+410)

Giants at Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

I really like this spot for Bryce Harper.

For one, he's at home, a venue that has been the sixth-best park for homers over the last three seasons, per Statcast Park Factors. Harper was a monster at home last season, generating a .401 wOBA in the split, compared to a .326 wOBA on the road.

Harper is facing a righty, too. He posted a .367 wOBA against right-handers a season ago, and that skyrocketed to a .425 wOBA when he was at home against RHPs.

Said righty is Tyler Mahle, who is giving up 2.10 jacks per nine so far this year. In 2025, Mahle surrendered a 47.5% fly-ball rate to lefties.

All in all, Harper checks a lot of boxes.

Ian Happ to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Cubs at Padres, 9:41 p.m. ET

The Chicago Cubs have a nice matchup versus Walker Buehler, and that leads me to Ian Happ.

Buehler pitched to a 5.19 SIERA a campaign ago while letting up a .366 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

The switch-hitting Happ will swing from the left side against Buehler, and that was Happ's stronger side last year, with the Cubs' outfielder recording a .344 wOBA, 39.8% hard-hit rate and 44.1% fly-ball rate against RHPs.

While Petco Park isn't the ideal stadium for HR props, the matchup with Buehler is enough to put me on Happ.

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+410)

Royals at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

Speaking of ideal parks for homers, Sutter Health Park is pretty darn close as it was the second-best park for offense last year as well as the sixth-best park for home runs.

That's where Vinnie Pasquantino will be today for a clash with right-hander Aaron Civale. In 2025, Civale registered a lowly 8.6% swinging-strike rate and gave up 1.41 bombs per nine. Lefty bats tagged him for a .342 wOBA and 46.8% fly-ball rate.

Pasquantino launched 32 long balls in 2025. Of those 32 tanks, 26 came with the platoon advantage -- a split where he racked up a .364 wOBA and 44.0% fly-ball rate.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.