Home Run Predictions Today: 2 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 5/7/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Bryce Harper
• Manny Machado

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets, Props and Picks for Today

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+440)

A's at Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

After a 3 for 3 day on Wednesday, let's see if we can do it again.

Bryce Harper checks a lot of boxes in a home date with righty JT Ginn.

Ginn owns a 4.72 SIERA this season and has struggled mightily with lefty hitters in his career, surrendering a .403 wOBA and 1.99 homers per nine in the split.

Enter Harper, who has a huge .406 expected wOBA so far in 2026. A year ago, Harper was significantly more lethal at home (.401 wOBA) than on the road (.326). He also posted a 40.8% hard-hit rate and .367 wOBA against righties.

Once Ginn departs, Harper will take on an Athletics bullpen that sits seventh-worst in xFIP.

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Cardinals at Padres, 10:11 p.m. ET

Harper's 2010 draft class mate Manny Machado is also in a good spot to leave the yard.

Machado will see St. Louis Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore, who has a 5.06 SIERA this season while being tagged for 2.00 jacks per nine.

Machado is off to a slow start (.305 wOBA), but he's nuking lefties over a small sample (.475 wOBA) and put up a 47.7% fly-ball rate in the split in 2025.

After Liberatore exits, he'll turn the keys over to a Cards 'pen that has the sixth-worst reliever xFIP, so Machado should be in good matchups all night.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

We're having a Yard Sale! Get a 30% Profit Boost Token to use on a “To Hit a Home Run” Wager for any MLB Games taking place on May 7th, 2026! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.