Home Run Predictions Today: 2 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 5/11/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Daulton Varsho
• Corey Seager

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Daulton Varsho to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Rays at Blue Jays, 7:08 p.m. ET

Daulton Varsho has a quality home matchup with righty Drew Rasmussen, putting Varsho on my HR radar for Monday.

Varsho is off to a sluggish start, recording just four bombs and a .309 expected wOBA so far in 2026. I'm not too worried about it. He's still generating a lot of fly-balls (41.9% fly-ball rate), and he mashed his way to a .355 wOBA against RHPs last campaign.

Rasmussen is allowing 1.47 home runs per nine innings this season, including 1.93 per nine away from home.

With a .381 wOBA across his past 27 plate appearances, Varsho is heating up, and I like him to leave the yard tonight.

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Diamondbacks at Rangers, 8:06 p.m. ET

Facing right-hander Michael Soroka at home, Corey Seager is my favorite home run bet today.

Soroka has pitched to a meh 9.6% swinging-strike rate since the start of last year while amassing a 40.2% fly-ball rate in that time. Lefty bats are mauling him this season to the tune of a .403 wOBA and 46.9% fly-ball rate. He's also allowing 2.08 jacks per nine on the road so far in 2026.

Seager boasts an appealing batted-ball profile -- 44.0% hard-hit rate and 39.0% fly-ball rate -- and his .345 expected wOBA is well above him .302 actual wOBA. He's popped seven tanks this season, all of which have come against RHPs -- a split where he owns a 46.7% hard-hit rate and 42.7% fly-ball rate.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.